RB Efficiency Numbers – Adjusting for Strength of Schedule
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This is just a quick post based on some numbers that Shawn Siegele asked about related to RBs and the defenses they face. All of the FPOP numbers that I post weekly are raw numbers, which is to say that they’re only adjusting fantasy points based on opportunity, and not based on opponent. Adjusting for opponent is certainly something that I’d like to look into further in the offseason as I think there are ways to get the FPOP numbers to also work with the Buy Low Machine. My first stab at adjusting for opponent was to simply give each defense an average FPOP allowed, and then to plot RBs on a graph where the x-axis is the defense’s FPOP allowed per play (to RBs) and the y-axis is the RB’s FPOP per Opportunity. You can see from the graph below that there is definitely a linear trend. In order to highlight the players that fall furthest away from the trend line I made the players closest to the trend semi-transparent. I’ll try to walk you through some things in the graph that are a little easier for me to see.