Week 13 DraftDay Salaries vs. Fantasy Pros Rankings – A Value Exercise



In this weekly DraftDay value report, we’ll take a look at values by comparing a player’s FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) to their salary rank. For instance, if Tom Brady is the 3rd overall quarterback according to ECR, but he’s ranked 10th in salary, there’s potentially a value there. I’ll dig deeper, looking at the matchup and the players historical performance through the lense of our GLSP projections and recommend a value/pass grade. In the end, it’s up to you to pick which players to play. Is Aaron Rodgers technically a value if he’s 2nd in ECR but 5th in salary? Yes, but Matthew Stafford might be 5th in ECR and ranked 14th in salary and is the better play.

As always, don’t forget to diversify your lineups, and remember to always play within your means. Be sure to check out our DraftDay Lineup Dominator app to see how these players fit into your weekly strategy. You can sign up for DraftDay here.

Name ECR Salary Rank Difference Salary POS Comments Value
Andre Brown 6 9 -3 14000 RB This is fair value, but Brown’s involvement in the passing game can’t be ignored. He’s averaging 4 targets per game, invaluable in DraftDay’s PPR format. Push
Alfred Morris 12 23 -11 9150 RB The Giants run defense is the 6th best in the league, only allowing 3.7 YPC and 7 touchdowns on the season. It doesn’t seem this way, but Morris only has 3 games of 20+ carries, all in the last 4 weeks. Morris’ mean projection of 12.5 points is what I think you’re in line for here. Pass
Maurice Jones-Drew 15 20 -5 10450 RB The price is low, but the upside (14.5 points) just isn’t there to justify his price tag. Pass
Ray Rice 16 22 -6 9500 RB There’s incredible downside (4.6 points) and middling upside (14.8) with Rice this week. He’ll need to reach his high projection to justify the cash you spent on him. Pass
C.J. Spiller 19 30.5 -12 8200 RB See Maurice Jones-Drew. Pass
Bobby Rainey 28 40 -12 7050 RB Rainey came back to earth against a better Lions rush defense. The Panthers 8th ranked rush defense isn’t going to be an easier go, allowing only 3.8 YPC and 3 rushing touchdowns this season. Pass
Demaryius Thomas 5 8 -3 14300 WR Fair value. Push
Andre Johnson 9 14 -5 13150 WR The Patriots are one of the better pass defenses in the league. On average, they give up 220 yards per game and 6.5 yards per pass. I don’t expect the Texans to have much success, but I do expect some garbage time production. Push
Vincent Jackson 10 17 -7 12150 WR I love Vincent Jackson the player, but I hate Vincent Jackson the fantasy football sometimes-star. Jackson wilts against tougher corners, and then sometimes he just wilts for no discernible reason. Carolina gives up the 9th least receiving yards per game, mostly due to their absolutely dominant front 7. An 5 catch, 40 yard game is absolutely within the range of possibilities here. Pass
Alshon Jeffery 13 20.5 -8 11500 WR I love all the #Bears this week. Minnesota is allowing 282 yards passing per game, and they’ve given up a league leading 24 passing touchdowns this season. Jeffery’s 8.6 points last Sunday were just the 2nd time since week 3 he’s had a game below 10 points. Fire up #TeamTrestman. Value
Michael Floyd 18 25.5 -8 10450 WR Floyd has come on recently, and I expect the Arizona passing game to put on it’s best showing this week against Philadelphia. Floyd’s upside this week is huge. Value
Torrey Smith 20 25.5 -6 10450 WR Smith’s individual matchup against Ike Taylor (-8.4 ProFootballFocus grade) is positive, the Pittsburgh defense overall has been a negative for opposing passing games. Smith has been targeted heavily the last month, but has an abysmal 50% catch rate. Only Jake Locker has been a worse deep ball passer than Joe Flacco this season (23.3% completion percentage, 5 interceptions). You’re paying WR2 money for WR3 production. Pass
Riley Cooper 25 31 -6 9550 WR While DeSean Jackson is getting the Patrick Peterson treatment, Riley Cooper gets the far less intimidating Jerraud Powers (-0.6 ProFootballFocus rating). Cooper’s last game was extremely disappointing, but he was open at will against the Redskins secondary. Value
Greg Olsen 6 8.5 -3 10000 TE Olsen’s downside isn’t priced in at the TE6. If he doesn’t score a touchdown, you’ll with the Kyle Rudolph-esque 3 catches for 40 yards. Pass
Nick Foles 7 10 -3 16700 QB This isn’t a deep enough discount for me to start Foles this week. There are just other better options available. Pass
Josh McCown 8 13 -5 15200 QB McCown has a higher projection than Foles this week, and gets the plus matchup. #TeamTrestman is going to roll over Minnesota. McCown has shown he can take advantage of good matchups, and this is by far the best one he’s had yet. Value
Matt Ryan 12 23 -11 13100 QB GLSP marks Ryan down for a 7.3 point floor and a 14.2 ceiling, which isn’t worth the $13,100 it would cost to secure his services. Pass

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By Coleman Kelly | @coleman_ff | Archive

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