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calvinjohnson

The table below summarizes Expected Points and my efficiency metric Fantasy Points Over Par (FPOP) for WRs. Expected Points is the number of fantasy points that each of a receiver’s targets should have produced based on the average over 13 seasons of data for plays with the same line of scrimmage. For instance, a target from the other team’s 40 yard line (line of scrimmage) produces 1 fantasy point on average while a target from the other team’s 1 yard line produces 2.8 fantasy points on average. Then the difference between the average expectation and what actually happened is what I call FPOP. Larger numbers are more efficient, or more lucky in some cases. My thoughts after 4 weeks:

  • AJ Green leads the league in Expected Pts for WRs and yet he’s about 12 in Actual Points in standard leagues. He’s been below average in FPOP thus far although he’s getting passes from the same QB he always has and they should both be a year more experienced. That sort of doesn’t make sense on its face right? And yet I don’t know if there’s anything really actionable in Green’s subpar FPOP. You could try to trade for him but he’s #12 in WR scoring right now and if Green improves it’s likely not from an improving schedule (their schedule is a mix of good and bad going forward).
  • Kenbrell Thompkins’ FPOP has enjoyed a wild recovery. His efficient game on Sunday really helped. Now he’s just barely below average on a per attempt basis (although he’s catching passes from a QB that tends to make his receivers pretty efficient).
  • Kind of interesting that Andre Johnson has 120 more yards than Wes Welker and yet 6 fewer touchdowns.
  • On a per game basis Randall Cobb would be near the top in Expected Points. He’s seeing usage thus far at a rate that single GB receivers tend not to.
  • After week 2 DJax had 22 Expected Pts and 41 Actual. In the two weeks since he’s only added 14 Expected and 10 Actual. As I said after week 2, he’ll have some highs and lows, but CBs in the NFL have had a few years to figure out how to cover him. If I have to bet I would bet he finished the year closer to his career 0.17 FPOP/T than the .41 that he still sports even after two down weeks.
  • Whose offseason contract looks more idiotic based on usage – Mike Wallace or Dwayne Bowe? That’s a trick question.
  • Right now Tavon Austin and Emmanuel Sanders are battling it out for “Highest Usage Player Delivering the Shittiest Results”. Greg Little was a candidate for the award before he was benched. Actually I could see trying to pick up Tavon for cheap just to get the targets but then there’s also a chance he hits the waiver wire at some point. But I do like those targets he’s seeing (from a fantasy standpoint – from a real football standpoint the Rams can’t afford to waste any more plays given the punt-inducing performance of their run game).
PLAYER GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS Exp Pts Actual Pts FPOP per Target FPOP YPT Career FPOP per Target
A.J. Green 4 50 26 300 3 54.46 48 -0.13 -6.46 6.00 0.07
Cecil Shorts 4 52 26 337 0 53.34 33.7 -0.38 -19.64 6.48 0.04
Julio Jones 4 48 33 481 2 50.23 60.1 0.21 9.87 10.02 0.37
Pierre Garcon 4 44 29 339 2 50.08 45.9 -0.09 -4.18 7.70 0.01
Calvin Johnson 4 40 21 312 4 47.86 55.2 0.18 7.34 7.80 0.22
Kenbrell Thompkins 4 39 15 257 3 46.93 43.7 -0.08 -3.23 6.59 -0.08
Wes Welker 4 36 26 266 6 46.23 62.6 0.45 16.37 7.39 -0.03
Andre Johnson 4 47 34 368 0 45.61 36.8 -0.19 -8.81 7.83 0.08
Julian Edelman 4 43 34 319 2 44.67 43.9 -0.02 -0.77 7.42 -0.10
Victor Cruz 4 43 26 425 4 43.21 66.5 0.54 23.29 9.88 0.34
Antonio Brown 4 42 32 412 2 43.15 53.2 0.24 10.05 9.81 0.02
Brandon Marshall 4 42 27 348 2 41.66 46.8 0.12 5.14 8.29 -0.03
Torrey Smith 4 42 21 435 1 41.13 49.5 0.20 8.37 10.36 0.29
Demaryius Thomas 4 38 29 390 4 39.85 63 0.61 23.15 10.26 0.33
Dez Bryant 4 36 23 282 4 39.71 52.2 0.35 12.49 7.83 0.38
Randall Cobb 3 33 21 290 2 39.07 41 0.06 1.93 8.79 0.27
Emmanuel Sanders 4 38 20 231 0 38.02 23.1 -0.39 -14.92 6.08 -0.16
Eric Decker 4 35 24 340 1 37.56 40 0.07 2.44 9.71 0.26
Vincent Jackson 4 41 17 292 0 37.54 29.2 -0.20 -8.34 7.12 0.31
Reggie Wayne 4 34 23 305 2 37.18 42.5 0.16 5.32 8.97 0.10
Steve Johnson 4 35 18 235 2 37.11 35.5 -0.05 -1.61 6.71 0.02
Tavon Austin 4 34 20 124 2 36.67 24.4 -0.36 -12.27 3.65 -0.36
DeSean Jackson 4 37 21 393 2 36.15 51.3 0.41 15.15 10.62 0.17
Anquan Boldin 4 36 24 372 2 35.90 49.2 0.37 13.30 10.33 0.07
Larry Fitzgerald 4 34 21 245 3 35.66 42.5 0.20 6.84 7.21 0.10
Alshon Jeffery 4 32 18 211 1 35.44 27.1 -0.26 -8.34 6.59 -0.02
Davone Bess 4 34 19 177 0 34.96 17.7 -0.51 -17.26 5.21 -0.19
Austin Pettis 4 31 18 173 2 34.81 29.3 -0.18 -5.51 5.58 -0.24
Greg Little 4 32 11 78 0 32.81 7.8 -0.78 -25.01 2.44 -0.27
Kendall Wright 4 30 20 198 1 32.12 25.8 -0.21 -6.32 6.60 -0.21
Brian Hartline 4 33 21 272 2 31.27 39.2 0.24 7.93 8.24 -0.06
Denarius Moore 4 26 15 233 2 31.21 35.3 0.16 4.09 8.96 0.11
Mike Williams 4 29 15 164 2 30.74 28.4 -0.08 -2.34 5.66 0.00
DeAndre Hopkins 4 29 20 270 1 30.71 33 0.08 2.29 9.31 0.08
Michael Floyd 4 29 16 240 0 30.40 24 -0.22 -6.40 8.28 -0.20
Nate Washington 4 30 19 332 2 29.65 45.2 0.52 15.55 11.07 0.11
Chris Givens 4 27 13 235 0 29.52 23.5 -0.22 -6.02 8.70 0.06
Jerome Simpson 4 32 19 342 0 29.13 34.2 0.16 5.07 10.69 -0.08
Jerricho Cotchery 4 26 15 248 2 28.98 36.8 0.30 7.82 9.54 -0.04
Marques Colston 4 29 21 298 1 28.65 35.8 0.25 7.15 10.28 0.23
Ace Sanders 4 27 14 162 0 28.55 16.2 -0.46 -12.35 6.00 -0.46
Ty Hilton 4 30 16 205 0 28.46 20.5 -0.27 -7.96 6.83 0.19
Brandon Gibson 4 28 20 208 0 28.37 20.8 -0.27 -7.57 7.43 -0.17
Steve Smith 3 26 14 143 1 27.94 20.3 -0.29 -7.64 5.50 0.15
Vincent Brown 4 23 15 91 1 26.91 15.1 -0.51 -11.81 3.96 -0.13
Josh Gordon 2 28 14 217 1 26.83 27.7 0.03 0.87 7.75 0.12
Robert Woods 4 26 11 201 2 26.47 32.1 0.22 5.63 7.73 0.22
Mike Wallace 4 28 15 176 1 26.22 23.6 -0.09 -2.62 6.29 0.35
Harry Douglas 4 23 14 213 0 26.18 21.3 -0.21 -4.88 9.26 -0.20
Aaron Dobson 3 23 11 118 1 26.16 17.8 -0.36 -8.36 5.13 -0.36
Santana Moss 4 26 15 172 1 25.93 23.2 -0.10 -2.73 6.62 0.11
Donnie Avery 4 26 13 213 1 25.68 27.3 0.06 1.62 8.19 -0.16
Leonard Hankerson 4 24 15 185 2 24.92 30.5 0.23 5.58 7.71 0.12
Jordy Nelson 3 23 18 289 3 24.71 46.9 0.96 22.19 12.57 0.47
Eddie Royal 4 19 15 184 5 24.56 48.4 1.25 23.84 9.68 -0.23
Marlon Brown 4 23 14 150 3 24.50 33 0.37 8.50 6.52 0.37
James Jones 3 22 15 212 1 24.04 27.2 0.14 3.16 9.64 0.51
Hakeem Nicks 4 25 12 230 0 24.04 23 -0.04 -1.04 9.20 0.18
Dwayne Bowe 4 24 13 148 2 23.89 26.8 0.12 2.91 6.17 0.04
Greg Jennings 4 23 14 252 2 23.68 37.2 0.59 13.52 10.96 0.29
Andre Roberts 4 23 13 145 0 23.57 14.5 -0.39 -9.07 6.30 -0.18
Mohamed Sanu 4 24 16 146 0 23.34 14.6 -0.36 -8.74 6.08 -0.01
Stephen Hill 4 24 13 233 1 22.84 29.3 0.27 6.46 9.71 0.01
Nate Burleson 3 23 19 239 0 22.41 23.9 0.06 1.49 10.39 0.03
Jason Avant 4 22 12 146 1 21.72 20.6 -0.05 -1.12 6.64 -0.10
Darrius Heyward-Bey 4 20 13 135 0 21.70 13.5 -0.41 -8.20 6.75 -0.12
Miles Austin 3 21 15 125 0 21.45 12.5 -0.43 -8.95 5.95 0.22
Santonio Holmes 4 24 10 243 1 21.27 30.3 0.38 9.03 10.13 0.15
Rueben Randle 4 23 11 162 0 21.21 16.2 -0.22 -5.01 7.04 0.09
Sidney Rice 4 20 9 138 2 21.20 25.8 0.23 4.60 6.90 0.23
Golden Tate 4 22 13 175 0 21.15 17.5 -0.17 -3.65 7.95 0.03
Roddy White 4 18 10 84 0 21.09 8.4 -0.70 -12.69 4.67 0.03
Kevin Ogletree 4 20 8 70 1 20.31 13 -0.37 -7.31 3.50 -0.09
Rod Streater 4 19 13 172 0 18.99 17.2 -0.09 -1.79 9.05 -0.05
Riley Cooper 4 18 8 93 1 18.03 15.3 -0.15 -2.73 5.17 -0.10
Kyle Williams 4 19 9 87 0 17.57 8.7 -0.47 -8.87 4.58 -0.07
Brandon Stokley 3 16 9 79 0 16.07 7.9 -0.51 -8.17 4.94 0.18
Edmond Gates 4 16 6 83 0 16.07 8.3 -0.49 -7.77 5.19 -0.45
Terrance Williams 3 15 12 131 0 15.42 13.1 -0.15 -2.32 8.73 -0.15
Kenny Britt 3 16 5 43 0 14.78 4.3 -0.65 -10.48 2.69 0.22
Kenny Stills 4 14 7 134 0 14.70 13.4 -0.09 -1.30 9.57 -0.09
Doug Baldwin 4 15 12 216 1 14.55 27.6 0.87 13.05 14.40 0.20
Danny Amendola 1 14 10 104 0 14.04 10.4 -0.26 -3.64 7.43 -0.36
Jeremy Kerley 3 14 9 135 0 13.37 13.5 0.01 0.13 9.64 -0.08
Brian Quick 4 10 4 52 0 13.14 5.2 -0.79 -7.94 5.20 -0.32
Ted Ginn 3 13 7 143 2 12.99 26.3 1.02 13.31 11.00 -0.18
Brandon LaFell 2 11 7 66 2 12.69 18.6 0.54 5.91 6.00 0.05
Josh Morgan 4 14 9 115 0 12.62 11.5 -0.08 -1.12 8.21 -0.06
Marvin Jones 4 13 7 80 1 12.54 14 0.11 1.46 6.15 -0.14
Kris Durham 4 11 5 102 0 12.39 10.2 -0.20 -2.19 9.27 -0.20
Earl Bennett 4 10 7 66 2 12.30 18.6 0.63 6.30 6.60 -0.02
Stephen Burton 2 12 7 65 0 12.15 6.5 -0.47 -5.65 5.42 -0.34
T.J. Graham 4 12 4 45 0 11.58 4.5 -0.59 -7.08 3.75 -0.36
Lance Moore 3 11 4 44 0 11.52 4.4 -0.65 -7.12 4.00 0.14
Malcom Floyd 2 11 6 149 0 11.52 14.9 0.31 3.38 13.55 0.28
Keshawn Martin 3 11 5 78 0 11.33 7.8 -0.32 -3.53 7.09 -0.55
Damian Williams 3 11 7 75 0 10.95 7.5 -0.31 -3.45 6.82 -0.17
Brice Butler 4 11 7 78 0 10.54 7.8 -0.25 -2.74 7.09 -0.25
Keenan Allen 3 10 8 117 0 10.45 11.7 0.13 1.25 11.70 0.13
Jarius Wright 4 9 5 62 0 9.51 6.2 -0.37 -3.31 6.89 -0.01
Travis Benjamin 3 10 5 105 0 8.99 10.5 0.15 1.51 10.50 0.16
Cordarrelle Patterson 4 9 6 82 0 8.67 8.2 -0.05 -0.47 9.11 -0.05
Tim Wright 2 8 6 47 0 7.98 4.7 -0.41 -3.28 5.88 -0.41
Tandon Doss 1 9 4 47 0 7.96 4.7 -0.36 -3.26 5.22 -0.34
Jaron Brown 4 8 3 44 0 7.38 4.4 -0.37 -2.98 5.50 -0.37
Dwayne Harris 4 7 5 53 1 7.05 11.3 0.61 4.25 7.57 0.02
Aldrick Robinson 3 6 1 13 0 6.67 1.3 -0.89 -5.37 2.17 0.66
Josh Boyce 3 6 1 24 0 6.65 2.4 -0.71 -4.25 4.00 -0.71
Markus Wheaton 2 6 3 26 0 6.31 2.6 -0.62 -3.71 4.33 -0.62
Niles Paul 2 4 2 20 0 5.55 2 -0.89 -3.55 5.00 -0.18
Rishard Matthews 2 6 5 63 0 5.40 6.3 0.15 0.90 10.50 -0.11
Jacoby Ford 3 5 4 29 0 4.71 2.9 -0.36 -1.81 5.80 0.03
Junior Hemingway 3 3 2 13 1 4.62 7.3 0.89 2.68 4.33 0.89
Eric Page 1 5 3 55 0 4.54 5.5 0.19 0.96 11.00 0.19
Deonte Thompson 1 5 4 50 0 4.40 5 0.12 0.60 10.00 0.00
Kerry Taylor 1 4 3 40 0 4.18 4 -0.05 -0.18 10.00 -0.05
Andre Caldwell 3 4 3 69 1 4.09 12.9 2.20 8.81 17.25 -0.29
Ryan Broyles 2 4 3 34 0 3.91 3.4 -0.13 -0.51 8.50 0.22
Jeremy Ebert 2 4 2 10 0 3.83 1 -0.71 -2.83 2.50 -0.71
Cole Beasley 2 4 4 23 0 3.81 2.3 -0.38 -1.51 5.75 -0.53
Robert Meachem 3 4 2 34 1 3.80 9.4 1.40 5.60 8.50 0.60
Jermaine Kearse 3 4 3 66 1 3.78 12.6 2.21 8.82 16.50 0.46
Jacoby Jones 1 4 3 24 0 3.71 2.4 -0.33 -1.31 6.00 0.08
DeVier Posey 1 4 3 29 0 3.63 2.9 -0.18 -0.73 7.25 0.00
Justin Hunter 2 3 2 50 2 3.47 17 4.51 13.53 16.67 4.51
Griff Whalen 1 3 2 28 0 3.28 2.8 -0.16 -0.48 9.33 -0.16
Jeff Maehl 1 2 2 43 1 3.19 10.3 3.55 7.11 21.50 2.07
Tori Gurley 2 3 1 15 0 3.15 1.5 -0.55 -1.65 5.00 -0.55
Derek Moye 1 1 1 1 1 2.82 6.1 3.28 3.28 1.00 3.28
Patrick Edwards 1 3 3 30 0 2.78 3 0.07 0.22 10.00 0.07
Mike Brown 1 3 1 14 0 2.62 1.4 -0.41 -1.22 4.67 -0.52
Marlon Moore 3 3 1 6 0 2.55 0.6 -0.65 -1.95 2.00 0.17
Nick Toon 1 2 1 18 0 2.49 1.8 -0.34 -0.69 9.00 -0.34
A.J. Jenkins 1 2 1 6 0 2.43 0.6 -0.92 -1.83 3.00 -0.90
Jeremy Ross 1 2 1 8 0 1.91 0.8 -0.55 -1.11 4.00 -0.55
Stephen Williams 2 2 0 0 0 1.86 0 -0.93 -1.86 0.00 -0.55
Armanti Edwards 1 2 0 0 0 1.77 0 -0.88 -1.77 0.00 -0.05
Jon Baldwin 1 2 2 19 0 1.73 1.9 0.08 0.17 9.50 -0.33
Quinton Patton 2 2 1 0 0 1.73 0 -0.86 -1.73 0.00 -0.86
Jerrel Jernigan 2 2 1 5 0 1.63 0.5 -0.57 -1.13 2.50 -0.74
Chad Hall 1 1 0 0 0 1.61 0 -1.61 -1.61 0.00 -0.30
Dane Sanzenbacher 1 1 1 6 0 1.07 0.6 -0.47 -0.47 6.00 -0.32
Stedman Bailey 1 1 0 0 0 1.01 0 -1.01 -1.01 0.00 -1.01
Louis Murphy 1 1 1 8 0 0.98 0.8 -0.18 -0.18 8.00 -0.27
Michael Preston 1 1 1 4 0 0.95 0.4 -0.55 -0.55 4.00 -0.12
Drew Davis 1 1 0 0 0 0.94 0 -0.94 -0.94 0.00 0.32
Ben Obomanu 1 1 1 8 0 0.93 0.8 -0.13 -0.13 8.00 -0.01
Marquise Goodwin 1 1 1 0 0 0.87 0 -0.87 -0.87 0.00 -0.87
Ryan Spadola 1 1 0 0 0 0.87 0 -0.87 -0.87 0.00 -0.87
Lestar Jean 1 1 0 0 0 0.87 0 -0.87 -0.87 0.00 0.58
Domenik Hixon 1 1 1 8 0 0.87 0.8 -0.07 -0.07 8.00 0.01
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