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Expected Points and Fantasy Points Over Par (FPOP) are the measures I use to determine how much above or below average a player is on a per play basis. The idea is that every pass attempt on the field has an average fantasy point value associated with it, and then whether a QB produced more or fewer fantasy points with his attempts results in a positive or negative FPOP number.

Some thoughts after 7 weeks.

  • It’s pretty crazy how far below average Tom Brady has been on a per attempt basis. Like really crazy. I know that people will say Brady’s receivers have a lot to do with that, and I’m sure that’s true, but I swear any conversation I get into on Twitter related to QBs ends up with “YEAH BUT FRANCHISE QBS MAKE EVERYONE BETTER”
  • Alex Smith continues to pile up the opportunities that you’re looking for in a late round pick. Smith also gets a run of QB-friendly defenses coming up
  • If you were going to fix the NYG passing game, what could you even do about it? Eli has more INTs than TDs and yet you can’t say that they haven’t spent resources on WRs. So what would you do to fix it?
  • The numbers don’t include Cam’s Thursday night game but he continued last night his somewhat annoying habit of either winning or losing your fantasy week for you. I think I may write him a letter to know that he’s hurting me.
  • Most of Andrew Luck’s excess production is coming running the ball.
  • Carson Palmer is like Eli Manning without the promise of youth.. what’s that? Oh Eli isn’t young? Nevermind.
  • Case Keenum’s debut saw a positive FPOP day.
  • Jake Locker is returning this weekend and has been positive in FPOP both as a runner and as a passer.
PLAYER ATTS COMPS YDS YA TDS INTS RYDS RTDS Exp Pts Actual Pts FPOP per PaAtt FPOP per RuAtt Total FPOP Career FPOP per PaAtt Career FPOP per RuAtt
Peyton Manning 289 207 2562 8.87 25 3 -24 1 161.79 225.08 0.27 -0.74 63.29 0.10 -0.21
Tom Brady 285 158 1706 5.99 8 5 14 0 140.11 99.64 -0.10 -0.63 -40.47 0.08 -0.30
Alex Smith 250 145 1567 6.27 7 4 211 1 139.32 116.78 -0.09 -0.02 -22.54 -0.03 -0.05
Sam Bradford 262 159 1689 6.45 14 4 32 0 139.20 132.76 0.01 -0.62 -6.44 -0.06 -0.22
Matthew Stafford 290 178 2129 7.34 15 4 11 1 138.65 159.26 0.08 -0.15 20.61 0.00 0.14
Matt Ryan 244 171 1922 7.88 13 3 9 0 130.60 136.78 0.03 -0.19 6.18 0.03 -0.14
Philip Rivers 249 184 2159 8.67 15 5 32 0 126.56 154.56 0.12 -0.44 28.00 0.09 -0.34
Tony Romo 265 181 2007 7.57 15 5 20 0 124.68 147.28 0.09 -0.26 22.60 0.10 -0.14
Robert Griffin 238 143 1746 7.34 8 6 213 0 120.80 119.14 -0.02 0.10 -1.66 0.08 0.48
Jay Cutler 226 147 1654 7.32 12 7 81 0 118.29 120.26 0.01 0.01 1.97 0.01 -0.01
Joe Flacco 269 160 1917 7.13 8 8 39 0 115.67 104.58 -0.04 -0.09 -11.09 0.04 -0.20
Drew Brees 237 157 1961 8.27 14 5 36 1 115.24 148.04 0.13 0.06 32.80 0.06 -0.24
Aaron Rodgers 220 143 1905 8.66 13 4 75 0 114.93 140.70 0.15 -0.32 25.77 0.15 0.15
Carson Palmer 266 161 1741 6.55 8 13 6 0 111.63 84.24 -0.08 -0.47 -27.39 0.01 -0.25
Andrew Luck 226 138 1582 7 10 3 182 3 109.86 143.48 0.05 0.78 33.62 0.01 0.40
Russell Wilson 187 115 1488 7.96 11 4 320 0 108.31 138.52 0.14 0.08 30.21 0.14 0.20
Andy Dalton 250 164 1915 7.66 11 6 74 0 107.30 127.00 0.09 -0.13 19.70 0.02 -0.01
Eli Manning 268 146 1921 7.17 10 15 39 0 102.55 100.74 -0.01 0.17 -1.81 0.00 -0.22
Ben Roethlisberger 215 143 1651 7.68 7 5 48 0 100.28 95.84 -0.03 0.13 -4.44 0.07 -0.04
Ryan Tannehill 219 133 1575 7.19 9 7 50 0 97.25 99.00 0.04 -0.32 1.75 -0.02 -0.05
Geno Smith 225 130 1710 7.6 8 11 146 2 97.08 113.00 0.01 0.46 15.92 0.01 0.46
Matt Schaub 233 150 1552 6.66 8 9 5 0 96.93 84.58 -0.05 0.06 -12.35 0.03 -0.31
Cam Newton 170 108 1331 7.83 10 5 180 2 93.49 123.24 0.13 0.19 29.75 0.05 0.33
Brandon Weeden 195 103 1153 5.91 5 6 37 0 92.88 62.82 -0.14 -0.25 -30.06 -0.08 -0.07
Colin Kaepernick 182 103 1420 7.8 8 5 237 1 90.00 116.50 0.08 0.28 26.50 0.08 0.42
Chad Henne 173 103 1221 7.06 2 5 17 0 88.44 50.54 -0.20 -0.27 -37.90 -0.09 -0.05
Terrelle Pryor 138 89 1060 7.68 5 5 289 0 75.19 86.30 0.01 0.24 11.11 0.01 0.26
Michael Vick 132 71 1187 8.99 5 2 276 2 74.84 108.08 0.11 0.56 33.24 -0.01 0.40
Jake Locker 152 94 1065 7.01 8 1 117 1 71.77 98.30 0.12 0.49 26.53 0.04 0.49
E.J. Manuel 150 85 984 6.56 5 3 102 0 71.60 68.56 0.01 -0.17 -3.04 0.01 -0.17
Josh Freeman 147 63 761 5.18 2 4 20 0 55.98 34.44 -0.15 0.08 -21.54 -0.01 0.00
Mike Glennon 130 76 722 5.55 5 3 30 0 55.91 50.88 -0.05 0.17 -5.03 -0.05 0.17
Christian Ponder 100 59 691 6.91 2 5 77 2 49.98 47.34 -0.13 0.71 -2.64 -0.06 0.24
Brian Hoyer 96 57 615 6.41 5 3 14 0 43.09 45.00 0.03 -0.18 1.91 -0.01 -0.26
Blaine Gabbert 86 42 481 5.59 1 7 32 0 41.65 13.44 -0.30 -0.25 -28.21 -0.12 -0.29
Nick Foles 90 52 622 6.91 6 0 32 1 40.84 64.08 0.23 0.28 23.24 -0.01 0.23
Ryan Fitzpatrick 79 41 525 6.65 2 4 78 1 39.27 36.80 -0.10 0.39 -2.47 -0.04 0.05
Thaddeus Lewis 64 40 418 6.53 2 1 30 1 31.99 33.72 0.02 0.02 1.73 0.02 0.01
Matt Cassel 69 48 489 7.09 3 2 13 0 27.36 31.86 0.07 -0.07 4.50 -0.02 -0.02
Case Keenum 25 15 271 10.84 1 0 10 0 13.46 16.84 0.24 -0.86 3.38 0.24 -0.86
T.J. Yates 22 15 113 5.14 0 2 -9 0 13.34 -0.38 -0.56 -1.30 -13.72 -0.16 0.09
Matt Flynn 34 22 246 7.24 1 1 4 0 13.19 13.24 0.03 -0.38 0.05 0.07 -0.26
Josh McCown 20 14 204 10.2 1 0 33 0 10.10 16.46 0.25 0.34 6.36 -0.04 0.07
Matt Barkley 20 11 129 6.45 0 3 0 0 6.77 -0.84 -0.38 NA -7.61 -0.38 NA
Jeff Tuel 20 8 80 4 0 1 0 0 5.43 1.20 -0.21 NA -4.23 -0.21 NA
Tarvaris Jackson 8 7 129 16.12 1 0 3 1 5.41 16.46 0.95 1.14 11.05 0.00 0.10
Colt McCoy 0 0 0 NA 0 0 -3 0 2.49 -0.30 NA -0.93 -2.79 -0.06 -0.07
Matt Hasselbeck 3 2 37 12.33 0 0 0 0 1.81 1.48 -0.11 NA -0.33 -0.01 -0.03
Brock Osweiler 3 2 10 3.33 0 0 3 0 1.79 0.70 -0.19 -0.27 -1.09 -0.21 -0.51
Derek Anderson 0 0 0 NA 0 0 -4 0 1.55 -0.40 NA -0.49 -1.95 -0.07 -0.07
Curtis Painter 4 2 16 4 0 1 0 0 1.09 -1.36 -0.61 NA -2.45 -0.13 -0.18
Kellen Clemens 4 2 19 4.75 0 0 0 0 1.09 0.76 -0.08 NA -0.33 -0.17 -0.04
Charlie Whitehurst 0 0 0 NA 0 0 -3 0 1.05 -0.30 NA -0.45 -1.35 -0.14 0.02
Jason Campbell 4 1 6 1.5 0 0 0 0 1.04 0.24 -0.20 NA -0.80 -0.03 0.10
Chase Daniel 0 0 0 NA 0 0 -4 0 1.03 -0.40 NA -0.36 -1.43 -0.12 -0.28

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