The Wideout Report: Week 6, Hakeem Nicks, and Julio Jones
For the last few weeks I’ve done Tuesday rundowns of all the wideout situations. I’m doing the same thing this week. Also, since I’m not entirely omniscient, check out RotoViz’s Buy Low Machine and WR GLSP Projections. Here we go.
Hakeem Nicks has had 2 good weeks, 2 serviceable weeks, and 2 rancid weeks. Rueben Randle is cannibalizing him—metaphorically. Right now they’re WR3s. If Nicks gets traded (it could happen), then both could be solid WR2s. Victor Cruz? I think of him as more of a low-end WR1 with Dez Bryant upside as opposed to a true top-3 WR. In other words, if you can trade Cruz to someone who thinks he’s a top-3 WR, do it. Then again, if Nicks gets traded, Cruz may get even more attention from Eli Manning. Buy Nicks and Randle. Sell or hold Cruz.
Here’s what I said last week: “if you have Brandon Marshall, you’re starting him, but you should expect WR2 (not high-end WR1) production. Alshon Jeffery? OK, now I’m buying it. He could be the head of the 2012 WR class.” So I’m an idiot.
Is it that time already?
Who would you rather have right now? Josh Gordon or A.J. Green? Gordon’s a dynasty building block—and we told you to draft him. Repeatedly. If you can get him in a reasonable trade, do it. Ten weeks from now, you’ll be the winner. I’m not saying that Gordon will definitely finish the season as the better player, but Gordon is giving you WR1 production. At a minimum, he’s a Green-equivalent receiver. Right now, Gordon has 14.3 pts/game; Green, 11.7.
If Kris Durham breaks out, I’m fine with him being a guy I didn’t see coming. I just don’t see it.
If you have Denarius Moore, you’re probably starting him, but you may feel like the guy who’s getting the milk for free. At some point, the cow must be bought, and the longer the milk’s free the bigger the cow. One of these weeks, Denarius is gonna fall on you like a big cow. [I have no idea what I’m typing.]
Last week I posed this question: “What was the last 5-0 team to have a WR corps this uninspiring?” A reader—sorry I forgot your name, bro—gave this answer: The 2008 13-3 Titans, and maybe the 2006 13-3 Bears. Do you remember the receivers on these teams? Exactly!
The hat trick 2 weeks in a row? Why not! Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin , and Jermaine Kearse catch passes (sometimes) for the Seahawks. But they don’t actually catch passes for your team, right?
[Loud applause.] [Bowing.] [Curtain.]
Do you doubt Brandon LaFell? I LaFeel you.
Greg Jennings and Jerome Simpson? This is what happens when you start guys who went off last game. Cordarrelle Patterson? Joe Webb got more action in Week 6.
As I said after Week 4, “Antonio Brown is a WR3 with WR1 upside. Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders are not starters.” Don’t buy Sanders. Don’t sell Antonio. Don’t eat the paint chips.
[Alternate version] No comprendo la pregunta.
Remember when you flipped out about DeSean Jackson after Week 4, and I told you to start him? And then when you thought about trading him after Week 5, and I told you not to trade him yet. You’re welcome, and I still wouldn’t trade him.
Vincent Jackson? It was the matchup. Not against the Eagles. Against me. He played against me this weekend. By the way, in Mike Williams’ Week 6 absence Chris Owusu was the only WR besides V-Jax to catch a pass. Owusu is a deep dynasty sleeper.
Torrey Smith? It was his team. Not the Ravens. My team. He plays on my team.
You know the story: You roster Jarrett Boykin in a dynasty league for 5 weeks, knowing that an injury to any of three receivers means instant playing time for him. And then, when the Browns sign Charles Johnson, you think, “Some people like Johnson’s potential, and maybe this is the year that no Packers WRs get injured,” and so you drop Boykin and pick up Johnson in Week 6—and then James Jones and Randall Cob get injured—and you feel like a dumbass. And by “you,” I mean “I.”
Not even “Tavon Austin Pettis” was a decent start in Week 6. Avoid.
Cecil Shorts lost you some games this week, and Justin Blackmon won you some games. If you can trade for either at a reasonable price, especially in dynasty, do it. Teddy’s gonna love them next year.
Trading Places: Wes Welker is Billy Ray Valentine. In a new situation, he’s much more successful. Instead of scamming for quarters on the street he’s scoring serious money in the office. The end zone is Welker’s new office—and it used to belong to Eric Decker. At least, like Louis Winthorpe III, Decker gets the benefit of attractive female companionship. But I still think that, if you can trade Welker for Decker in dynasty leagues, you should.
Colston may have been one of your favorite draft targets, but he’s costing you victories. If you can trade him to someone who thinks he’s a top-15 WR, you should do it. He could have a second-half rebound, but with so many passes going to TEs and RBs he could just as easily have a second-half . . . outbound? Word. Mic drop.
If you believe in Tom Brady, Gronk’s Week 6 absence has given you more time to buy low on the New England passing game. Of the WRs, Kenbrell Thompkins is my favorite. Brady trusted him when it mattered most in Week 6. He’s playing like 2010 Deion Branch in the BOL Function, and by the end of the season he could be a solid WR2/3.
Week 6 looked a lot like Week 5 looked like 2011.
As Ryan Rouillard has put it, Pierre Garcon is a bigger D-Jax. He’s a weekly starter.
If you can find a Dez Bryant owner frustrated enough to part with him on equitable terms after Week 6, make that trade. Terrance Williams: I understand both the buyers and the sellers.
Reggie Wayne is a top-20 WR. T.Y. Hilton is a top-30 WR. I like both of them (especially Hilton, a lot), but neither guy is really scratching that fantasy itch for you right now. I can’t help you. At this point of the season, we know what they are. Hopefully you didn’t reach when drafting them. On the plus side, they might make for fine trade targets if their owners are slightly disappointed.
I guess that, if you think that Philip Rivers’ (predicted) resurgence will continue (I do), it then follows that someone besides TEs and RBs will catch passes from him—and Keenan Allen seems to be that guy. For the record, what made me dislike Allen as a prospect during the draft process wasn’t his abysmal 40 time. (As long as a guy drafted in the first four rounds is at least 6’0” and 200 lbs, then I don’t care about his athleticism. Seriously.) What I didn’t like about Allen was his paucity of raw stats, especially TDs, despite his superior senior-year market share of 0.43. It looks like I was wrong to focus on raw stats at the exclusion of Allen’s size, draft status, and market share. Good for Allen.
Julio Jones: Farewell, Aragog: “The last thing I wish to be is indelicate, but Julio Jones’s athleticism is uncommonly rare. Would you allow me to extract a vial or two, purely for academic purposes? . . . I always have a trade chip or two about my roster for just such occasions as this. Old fantasy addict’s habit, you know. . . . Would you like me to say a few words?” In other words, if you can acquire Julio Jones at a discount in dynasty/keeper leagues, do it. He ain’t dead.
Interested in RBs? Here’s my Week 6 RB Report.