Week One Receiving Efficiency Report – Comparing Actual vs. Expected Fantasy Points for WRs
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One of the things we can do with target data is create an expectation of the value of a target from any yard line (line of scrimmage) on the field and then compare expected fantasy points versus actual fantasy points. This gives us some sense as to how fluky a player’s fantasy production is. For instance, Kenbrell Thompkins was targeted 14 times in his game against the Bills. Those targets (based on the line of scrimmage) would on average produce about 18 standard fantasy points. Instead they produced 4.2 FPs. The difference between the two numbers is what I’ll call Fantasy Points Above Par on a gross basis. I typically divide FPOP by targets to get a number that is per target. In Thompkins case he was a full fantasy point below par (per target). That means each target produced one fewer fantasy point than average. Sorry if I’m beating this into the ground but I just want to explain it fully.