FFFootball

This May Be Your Last, Best Chance To Buy Low On Doug Martin

dougmartin

All the uncertainty surrounding the Bucs right now represents a prime buying opportunity, as many owners of the TB skill players are nervous about the impact that rookie QB  Mike Glennon (who, full disclosure, we don’t think will be very good) will have on the offense, especially with Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson banged up. What these owners probably won’t realize is that the switch to a rookie QB is likely good news for Doug Martin, who will be a featured part of the offense (and is apparently prone to check-downs, which helps lots in PPR). Enough pixels have been spilled explaining exactly why Doug Martin deserved the #1 overall pick in your fantasy drafts (partially because he finished with the third most yards from scrimmage of any rookie running back in NFL history) so I won’t recap those arguments here. Suffice it to say, three-down thumpers who gets 25+ touches a game are a little rare. (EDIT: I had intended to reference Jon Moore’s fantastic article demonstrating that really bad teams can produce fantasy useful RBs. Give it a read, it’s pretty central to my thesis.)

No, the primary (additional) reason why you should be buying low on Dougie Fresh is schedule related.  If you peep the Buy Low Machine, my new favorite RotoViz tool, you will see that TB has had a very difficult schedule to date (scored 28/100, where 100 is the easiest schedule). His remainder of the season strength of schedule (through week 16)? 50.42. No other RB strength of schedule improves as dramatically at Tampa Bay’s does for the rest of the season (though MJD and the pitiful Jaguars may present another RB buy-low opportunity, though my personal preference is to simply add Jordan Todman (more background on Todman from the Oracle here) and wait for MJD’s wheels to fall off).

Warren Buffet famously preached to be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. Owners are fearful about Tampa Bay, and by extension, Dougie. Acquiring Dougie now when he’s at his cheapest is a move that could garner your championships.

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By Aaron Messing | @amess | Archive

6 Comments

  1. adf1234
    September 27, 2013 at 6:41 pm —

    I traded Dougie and Vjax away the night before Freeman was benched. I got back Sproles, Cobb, and DeAndre Hopkins. I needed an upgrade at flex and already have Jamal Charles, Erick Decker, Desean Jackson and Jordan Cameron with Vereen on my bench. It’s also 1/2PPR, deep 14 team, with a WR/TE and WR/RB flex. Good move?

    • adf1234
      September 27, 2013 at 7:31 pm —

      amess adf1234 Thank you for the reply here and on twitter as well. I loved having the combo of Doug and JC but my problem was that I was starting guys like Wheaton, Todman in the flex. While I believe that eventually they could become startable I didn’t trust them. I’m 3-0 but that’s because my studs have had big weeks so I figured it would be nice to have some solid flex in case I get a bad week from one of my top guys. Lineup now is Cutler/Big Ben, Desean, Decker, Cobb, Jamaal, Sproles, Cameron, Hopkins, Bolden(Vereen on bench) and then I have guys like Wheaton, Todman and Ladarius Green on the bench as well. What I will say is that everything I’ve read on Rotoviz has helped me especially that I got Cameron and Julius thomas for a combined 5$ in my auction draft.

  2. mjclarkmj
    September 30, 2013 at 5:59 am —

    I guess everyone gets at least 1 more chance to “buy low” on Martin, though I think the game plan of stack the box and wait for Glennon to prove something will continue to be the plan for all opponents. 
    The fact that AZ help him in check after loosing all 3 starting LBs last week doesnt give me much hope that things change going forward. Though I love Martin, I hate the situation and will likely stay away unless the price is very, very low.

  3. jmkeets
    September 30, 2013 at 3:34 pm —

    Any advice on what it would take to acquire Dougie?  Though I understand that it varies from league to league and from team to team, it would be great to see an advisable price range that would be appropriate.  This is to ensure we all don’t sacrifice our trading reputation (low-balling) and also ensure that we don’t overpay.
    Rotoviz is far and away the best site I’ve subscribed to and adding this would increase its value even more!

    • amess
      September 30, 2013 at 3:52 pm —

      jmkeets I would ideally look to trade 2-1, if at all possible. Any combination of WR2/RB2 should do the trick, in my opinion. After this week, Martin owners can’t be feeling optimistic (unless they’ve seen the SOS app). As I noted to sigmundbloom, TB’s QB schedule gets better as well, though not to the extent that their RB schedule does, which should help the entire offense.

  4. amess
    September 30, 2013 at 3:44 pm —

    meetloaf13 Seems like you’re pretty stacked at WR, so I would make that trade. If you trade for Doug Martin during the bye week, you may be able to get another nice piece as a throw-in as well.

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