Advice

RB Efficiency Report Week 3 (Through the Sunday Afternoon Games)

JamaalCharles

The table below contains the numbers for Expected Points and Actual Points (the difference between Expected and Acutal is FPOP which I explain here) through the Sunday afternoon games. As a simple primer, every carry/target has an average value based on the last 13 years of plays. Depending on whether the player produced more or fewer fantasy points than the average for each play they get a number assigned which I call FPOP, or Fantasy Points Over Par. Positive numbers are more efficient (or lucky in some cases) and negative numbers listed in parentheses are less efficient or more unlucky. Some thoughts on the table:

  • Jamaal Charles’ issue historically has been that he was perceived as being underutilized. That is not the case this year. He’s leading all RBs in EP. The funny thing is that during the Chiefs game on Thursday there was some discussion on Twitter about Charles not getting the ball enough. But how much more could the Chiefs really give him the ball?
  • DeMarco Murray is third in the league in EP and has been just below average on those touches. Some will say that Murray is a sell high, and I suppose if you expect him to get injured he is, but what if you sell him for less than he’s actually producing for your team? He’s currently the #4 RB in terms of PPR scoring. Maybe you drafted him around RB20, so what could you get in a trade to justify giving up a guy that’s caught 16 passes? That’s a legitimate question as I’m not sure what the trade market for Murray is right now.
  • Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller have close to the same Expected Points right now.
  • How many times in one career can the same player be a buy low? Chris Johnson is going to find out.
  • Look at Bilal Powell hovering right around the top 10 in Expected Points.
  • Depending on how many EP Darren McFadden has tonight he could also end up in the top 10 in opportunity/usage through 3 weeks. Darren McFadden always returns more or less value than his draft position. He refuses to simply return the value of the draft spot you used to acquire him.
  • Without doing any careful math, there’s a lot of Expected Points available for RBs in the Colts backfield. Donald Brown and Vick Ballard have 12 total EP combined. Then Bradshaw has another 32 points, while 9 of TRich’s 32 points are attributable to Week 3. So in total the Colts backfield has given us about 53 Expected Points in three games. If that were all going to one runner it would be the most in the league. If split 2/3 to TRich and 1/3 to Bradshaw going forward it’s still likely top 10 in the league for TRich (and would be a Gio Bernard sized share for Bradshaw).
PLAYER GMS ATTS RYDS YPC RTDS recs recYDS recTDS Exp Pts Actual Pts FPOP per Opp. Total FPOP Career FPOP per Opp.
Jamaal Charles 3 52 224 4.31 2 18 151 1 52.95 55.50 0.03 2.55 0.16
Adrian Peterson 3 69 281 4.07 3 11 52 1 50.03 57.30 0.09 7.27 0.17
DeMarco Murray 3 58 284 4.90 1 16 116 0 47.73 46.00 (0.02) (1.73) 0.02
Doug Martin 3 73 297 4.07 1 4 19 0 43.30 37.60 (0.07) (5.70) 0.06
Marshawn Lynch 3 62 210 3.39 2 5 46 1 41.29 43.60 0.03 2.31 0.04
Arian Foster 3 49 190 3.88 1 8 37 0 38.90 28.70 (0.16) (10.20) 0.09
LeSean McCoy 3 62 395 6.37 2 6 119 0 37.06 63.40 0.38 26.34 0.09
Chris Johnson 3 69 256 3.71 0 2 2 0 36.88 25.80 (0.15) (11.08) 0.08
Matt Forte 2 38 140 3.68 1 15 112 0 35.26 31.20 (0.07) (4.06) 0.01
Bilal Powell 3 52 226 4.35 1 8 66 0 34.88 35.20 0.00 0.32 (0.02)
DeAngelo Williams 3 61 281 4.61 0 4 11 0 33.78 29.20 (0.07) (4.58) 0.15
Joique Bell 3 34 119 3.50 3 14 177 0 33.62 47.60 0.26 13.98 0.14
Bernard Pierce 3 52 144 2.77 2 3 5 0 33.10 26.90 (0.11) (6.20) (0.02)
Trent Richardson 3 44 140 3.18 1 7 51 0 32.93 25.10 (0.14) (7.83) (0.00)
Ahmad Bradshaw 3 41 186 4.54 2 7 42 0 31.66 34.80 0.06 3.14 0.09
Maurice Jones-Drew 3 44 115 2.61 1 3 20 0 30.85 19.50 (0.22) (11.35) 0.11
Frank Gore 3 41 142 3.46 1 5 56 0 29.37 25.80 (0.07) (3.57) 0.05
C.J. Spiller 3 43 153 3.56 0 10 41 0 29.10 19.40 (0.18) (9.70) 0.14
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 3 46 127 2.76 2 2 9 0 28.69 25.60 (0.06) (3.09) 0.04
Fred Jackson 3 32 169 5.28 1 12 101 0 27.42 33.00 0.12 5.58 0.04
Darren McFadden 2 36 177 4.92 1 7 46 0 25.88 28.30 0.05 2.42 0.06
Pierre Thomas 3 25 100 4.00 0 14 74 0 25.43 17.40 (0.20) (8.03) 0.13
Reggie Bush 2 30 115 3.83 0 7 145 1 24.21 32.00 0.19 7.79 0.05
Ryan Mathews 3 45 164 3.64 0 3 25 1 24.12 24.90 0.02 0.78 0.05
Jacquizz Rodgers 3 31 102 3.29 0 7 38 0 23.79 14.00 (0.25) (9.79) (0.06)
James Starks 2 34 187 5.50 1 5 44 0 23.59 29.10 0.14 5.51 (0.03)
Rashard Mendenhall 3 40 155 3.88 1 4 44 0 23.56 25.90 0.05 2.34 0.03
Ray Rice 2 25 72 2.88 1 11 44 0 23.53 17.60 (0.15) (5.93) 0.06
Daryl Richardson 2 30 98 3.27 0 10 78 0 22.66 17.60 (0.12) (5.06) (0.09)
Alfred Morris 3 40 225 5.63 2 3 22 0 22.29 36.70 0.33 14.41 0.15
Darren Sproles 3 18 65 3.61 0 16 163 0 21.43 22.80 0.04 1.37 0.21
Danny Woodhead 2 14 58 4.14 0 17 112 0 19.72 17.00 (0.08) (2.72) 0.15
Lamar Miller 3 32 134 4.19 1 4 15 0 19.36 20.90 0.04 1.54 0.08
Ben Tate 3 27 184 6.81 0 8 22 0 19.31 20.60 0.03 1.29 0.08
Stevan Ridley 3 36 121 3.36 0 1 8 0 18.48 12.90 (0.15) (5.58) 0.02
Giovani Bernard 3 22 110 5.00 2 6 84 1 18.21 37.40 0.64 19.19 0.64
Steven Jackson 2 14 77 5.50 0 6 53 1 17.64 19.00 0.06 1.36 0.01
Jason Snelling 2 13 72 5.54 1 10 116 1 16.47 30.80 0.57 14.33 0.01
Da’Rel Scott 3 11 30 2.73 0 9 98 1 16.42 18.80 0.09 2.38 (0.04)
David Wilson 3 25 73 2.92 0 0 0 0 15.40 7.30 (0.30) (8.10) 0.14
Daniel Thomas 3 21 65 3.10 2 3 31 0 14.71 21.60 0.29 6.89 (0.09)
Shane Vereen 1 14 101 7.21 0 7 58 0 14.62 15.90 0.05 1.28 0.17
Mike Tolbert 3 19 53 2.79 1 3 12 0 14.20 12.50 (0.07) (1.70) 0.13
Knowshon Moreno 2 22 121 5.50 2 6 51 0 14.11 29.20 0.54 15.09 0.05
Chris Ivory 3 26 72 2.77 0 0 0 0 13.94 7.20 (0.24) (6.74) 0.12
Isaiah Pead 2 7 21 3.00 0 9 61 0 13.37 8.20 (0.29) (5.17) (0.20)
Isaac Redman 2 11 13 1.18 0 4 14 0 13.24 2.70 (0.66) (10.54) (0.03)
LeGarrette Blount 3 25 91 3.64 0 0 0 0 13.21 9.10 (0.16) (4.11) 0.06
Montee Ball 2 20 40 2.00 0 2 27 0 12.90 6.70 (0.28) (6.20) (0.28)
Mark Ingram 2 17 31 1.82 0 0 0 0 12.55 3.10 (0.53) (9.45) (0.02)
Ronnie Brown 3 13 48 3.69 1 3 27 0 11.79 13.50 0.11 1.71 0.03
Jackie Battle 3 18 46 2.56 1 0 0 0 11.23 10.60 (0.04) (0.63) (0.07)
Johnathan Franklin 1 13 103 7.92 1 3 23 0 11.09 18.60 0.47 7.51 0.47
Alfonso Smith 3 16 54 3.38 1 2 12 0 11.06 12.60 0.08 1.54 (0.02)
Eddie Lacy 2 15 51 3.40 1 1 31 0 10.48 14.20 0.22 3.72 0.22
Andre Ellington 2 7 39 5.57 0 6 91 1 10.24 19.00 0.49 8.76 0.49
Jordan Todman 3 9 7 0.78 1 3 20 0 9.98 8.70 (0.09) (1.28) (0.13)
Brandon Jacobs 2 10 6 0.60 1 0 0 0 9.90 6.60 (0.30) (3.30) 0.12
Dexter McCluster 1 1 -3 (3.00) 0 6 58 0 9.89 5.50 (0.31) (4.39) (0.02)
Bryce Brown 3 15 45 3.00 0 1 1 0 9.76 4.60 (0.32) (5.16) 0.01
Vonta Leach 1 3 8 2.67 0 6 35 1 8.83 10.30 0.13 1.47 (0.12)
Robert Turbin 3 12 53 4.42 0 2 13 0 8.78 6.60 (0.14) (2.18) (0.04)
Chris Ogbonnaya 1 2 23 11.50 0 7 64 0 7.79 8.70 0.07 0.91 (0.04)
Vick Ballard 1 13 63 4.85 0 1 -5 0 7.36 5.80 (0.10) (1.56) (0.08)
Rashad Jennings 2 6 34 5.67 0 1 2 0 6.64 3.60 (0.43) (3.04) 0.02
Kendall Hunter 3 11 31 2.82 1 1 4 0 6.42 9.50 0.26 3.08 0.06
Bruce Miller 0 0 0 NA 0 5 56 0 5.81 5.60 (0.03) (0.21) (0.06)
Knile Davis 2 10 37 3.70 0 1 5 0 5.49 4.20 (0.12) (1.29) (0.12)
Donald Brown 2 10 55 5.50 0 0 0 0 5.33 5.50 0.02 0.17 0.02
Benny Cunningham 2 6 16 2.67 0 1 6 0 5.20 2.20 (0.30) (3.00) (0.30)
Brandon Bolden 1 3 51 17.00 0 5 49 0 5.18 10.00 0.54 4.82 0.07
Tommy Bohanon 2 5 12 2.40 0 3 27 0 5.05 3.90 (0.13) (1.15) (0.13)
Felix Jones 1 10 37 3.70 0 0 0 0 4.61 3.70 (0.09) (0.91) 0.08
LaRod Stephens-Howling 1 6 19 3.17 0 2 11 0 4.61 3.00 (0.18) (1.61) 0.00
Roy Helu 1 1 5 5.00 0 5 48 0 4.43 5.30 0.12 0.87 (0.05)
Michael Bush 2 8 15 1.88 0 0 0 0 4.37 1.50 (0.32) (2.87) 0.04
Christine Michael 1 9 37 4.11 0 0 0 0 4.21 3.70 (0.06) (0.51) (0.06)
Justin Forsett 1 1 7 7.00 0 5 29 0 4.12 3.60 (0.07) (0.52) 0.01
Anthony Sherman 0 0 0 NA 0 5 54 0 4.00 5.40 0.23 1.40 0.03
Willis McGahee 1 8 9 1.13 0 0 0 0 3.76 0.90 (0.36) (2.86) 0.00
Marcel Reece 1 2 15 7.50 1 1 9 0 3.62 8.40 0.96 4.78 0.19
Ronnie Hillman 2 5 18 3.60 0 2 27 0 3.62 4.50 0.13 0.88 (0.04)
Lance Dunbar 2 6 31 5.17 0 1 4 0 3.54 3.50 (0.01) (0.04) (0.22)
Toby Gerhart 1 1 5 5.00 0 3 17 0 3.12 2.20 (0.18) (0.92) (0.00)
Theo Riddick 1 2 -2 (1.00) 0 1 8 0 3.04 0.60 (0.49) (2.44) (0.49)
Bobby Rainey 1 4 17 4.25 0 1 4 0 2.58 2.10 (0.10) (0.48) (0.10)
Phillip Tanner 2 4 1 0.25 0 1 9 0 2.50 1.00 (0.30) (1.50) (0.15)
Will Ta’ufo’ou 0 0 0 NA 0 4 22 0 2.47 2.20 (0.07) (0.27) (0.07)
Brian Leonard 1 1 0 0 2 21 0 2.43 2.10 (0.08) (0.33) (0.14)
Cyrus Gray 1 2 8 4.00 0 1 6 0 2.33 1.40 (0.23) (0.93) (0.01)
Alex Green 1 5 14 2.80 0 0 0 0 2.31 1.40 (0.18) (0.91) (0.18)
Tashard Choice 1 2 -1 (0.50) 0 1 1 0 2.17 (0.54) (2.17) (0.06)
Khiry Robinson 1 4 38 9.50 0 0 0 0 1.90 3.80 0.48 1.90 0.48
Shaun Draughn 1 4 2 0.50 0 0 0 0 1.89 0.20 (0.42) (1.69) (0.00)
Shonn Greene 1 4 18 4.50 0 0 0 0 1.88 1.80 (0.02) (0.08) (0.02)
Zach Line 0 0 0 NA 0 1 8 0 1.86 0.80 (0.35) (1.06) (0.35)
Stanley Havili 0 0 0 NA 0 3 12 0 1.83 1.20 (0.21) (0.63) (0.02)
Spencer Ware 1 3 10 3.33 0 0 0 0 1.79 1.00 (0.26) (0.79) (0.26)
Derrick Coleman 0 0 0 NA 0 3 30 0 1.72 3.00 0.43 1.28 0.43
Le’Ron McClain 2 2 9 4.50 0 1 7 0 1.63 1.60 (0.01) (0.03) (0.04)
Armond Smith 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 1.40 (0.47) (1.40) (0.46)
Jed Collins 0 0 0 NA 0 1 5 0 1.40 0.50 (0.45) (0.90) 0.34
Anthony Dixon 2 2 3 1.50 0 0 0 0 1.39 0.30 (0.54) (1.09) (0.05)
Henry Hynoski 0 0 0 NA 0 1 5 0 1.24 0.50 (0.37) (0.74) (0.23)
Bradie Ewing 0 0 0 NA 0 2 29 0 1.24 2.90 0.83 1.66 0.83
John Kuhn 1 1 3 3.00 0 0 0 0 1.23 0.30 (0.46) (0.93) 0.07
Frank Summers 0 0 0 NA 0 2 49 0 1.21 4.90 1.84 3.69 1.84
Leon Washington 1 1 1 1.00 0 0 0 0 1.16 0.10 (0.53) (1.06) 0.08
Stepfan Taylor 1 1 2 2.00 0 1 2 0 1.09 0.40 (0.35) (0.69) (0.35)
Tyler Clutts 1 1 -2 (2.00) 0 0 0 0 1.07 (0.20) (0.64) (1.27) (0.23)
Cierre Wood 1 2 4 2.00 0 0 0 0 0.94 0.40 (0.27) (0.54) (0.27)
Denard Robinson 2 2 -2 (1.00) 0 0 0 0 0.94 (0.20) (0.57) (1.14) (0.57)
Collin Mooney 0 0 0 NA 0 1 5 0 0.65 0.50 (0.15) (0.15) (0.10)
Erik Lorig 0 0 0 NA 0 1 1 0 0.64 0.10 (0.54) (0.54) (0.15)
Darrel Young 0 0 0 NA 0 0 0 0 0.58 (0.58) (0.58) 0.43
James Develin 0 0 0 NA 0 1 4 0 0.50 0.40 (0.10) (0.10) (0.10)
Mike James 1 1 5 5.00 0 0 0 0 0.47 0.50 0.03 0.03 0.03
Zac Stacy 1 1 4 4.00 0 0 0 0 0.46 0.40 (0.06) (0.06) (0.06)
Jonathan Dwyer 1 1 2 2.00 0 0 0 0 0.45 0.20 (0.25) (0.25) (0.08)

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