— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) September 10, 2013
The Lions held Christian Ponder to just 236 yards and 1 TD, and intercepted him 3 times. Then again it was only Christian Ponder. As Birkett notes, the Lions’ starting CBs didn’t play particularly well. Slay was benched for veteran Rashean Mathis, although he’s slated to start again this week.
Up next for the Lions are the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer is a better QB than Ponder, and the Cards also have a better receiving corps. Arizona did give up 4 sacks last week, but there’s no defense-related reason not to start any of their WRs against the Lions this week. Fitzgerald is probably back, Floyd could break out, and Andre Roberts is Bruce Arians’ Type.
James Jones puts up goose eggs from time time time. That’s what he does. Can also score 6 TDs in 3 games.
Josh Moore is a good follow, and makes a good point, too. Here’s Jones’ PPR scoring for his last 37 games.
Two of those “zero” entries are bye weeks; the rest are goose eggs. Jones put up a goose egg in Green Bay’s opening week loss, so his owners may be nervous about starting him. Over the past 3 seasons, here are Jones’ PPR point totals in the week following a goose egg: 10, 12, 18, 5, 14, 24, 4, 4, 11.
I’m not saying he’ll have a great game against the Bengals in week 2, but he does still play with Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers did attempt 37 passes last week. Just because his production can be volatile doesn’t mean he can’t produce this year. He’ll have good games this season. If he’s yours, keep the faith. If he’s not, see if you can get him from a possibly disillusioned current owner.
Trent Richardson got just five second-half carries in Sunday’s Week 1 loss to the Dolphins. Even Chris Palmer thinks Trent Richardson was underused. The Dolphins stacked the box after T-Rich shredded them on the opening drive…
I’ve got to believe that Cleveland will try to feature Richardson more (and Weeden less) in week 2. Baltimore presents it’s own challenges, but look for Richardson to be more consistently involved. After all, Norv+Trent=Pass Catching Upside.
Actual Results May Vary
Yesterday the Douche posted a list of WR actual vs. expected fantasy point production. It’s interesting and should be checked out. It’s only one game, so I don’t think we can make huge conclusions yet, but here are a few thoughts:
- Kenbrell Thompkins – Actual Points 4.2, Expected Points 17.9. The rookie’s first game wasn’t great- but he kinda looks like a growth stock. His targets (14!) and Expected Points indicate the potential for great profits in the future.
- Jermaine Kearse – Actual Points 10.9, Expected Points 1.9. On the other hand, this rookie put up great numbers for anyone who actually had him in their lineup. Looks a bit like fool’s gold to me though; he’s older than we like in a prospect, and remains behind Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Percy Harvin when he returns. Sell high if you’ve got him; let someone else spend FAAB on him if you don’t.
- Reggie Wayne – Actual Points 15.6, Expected Points 8.1. He’s been on the decline for some time. He had a good fantasy season last year and a great game in week one this year, but the train must come off the tracks eventually, right? It’s hard to recommend moving on from someone who just scored that many points- so I won’t. Maybe his “Luck” continues for the rest of the year. But I would say temper your expectations. Check out his FPOP trend over the past three years, from our Career Graphs App.
- Eric Decker – Actual Points 3.2, Expected Points 8.1. Decker owners would still be disappointed if he’d gotten his expected 8 points. But not as disappointed as they are with 3! If you can, buy low. Unlike Wayne, Decker has been above-par for his career, and should get back to form soon.
- Alshon Jeffery (4.2 Actual, 7.6 Expected) & Brandon Marshall (16.4 Actual, 9.6 Expected) – I talked briefly about Alshon Jeffery yesterday. Brandon Marshall had his typical high scoring game in week one. Despite the low point production, Jeffery (8) had nearly the same number of targets as Marshall (10). When you look at their expected points, those are actually pretty close too: 7.6 to 9.6. What does this mean to me? I take it as a sign that Trestman’s offense was functioning as expected, with multiple receivers getting a significant chunk of meaningful targets. Time will tell if Alshon can capitalize on his, but for now his future looks bright.