Advice

Knowshon Moreno, Eric Decker and the Standard League Week 3 Flex Rankings

ericdecker

It’s my belief that fantasy leagues are often won and lost out of the Flex. Trying to determine the likely scoring numbers from players at different positions isn’t necessarily as intuitive as it may seem. This is one of the areas where the RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections can be a big help. Since the Flex calculation is completely different in standard versus ppr, we’re going with separate columns this week.

In generating these rankings, I tried to cast a fairly wide net. Standard scoring leagues are overwhelmingly formats where it made sense to start RB-RB-RB, so you might have the option of starting a high end RB2 in your Flex. For that reason, I included players like DeMarco Murray and Frank Gore. Perhaps not surprisingly, they came in toward the top of the rankings. If you followed a WR-heavy strategy, you might have pretty good WRs like Eric Decker, James Jones, and Mike Williams available for your Flex.

A general note: Often when people see unexpected projections, they consider that to be an indication the algorithm doesn’t work. I usually consider it the opposite because if you already know everything the computer is spitting out, there’s no value added. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be independently evaluating the claims. It’s your lineup, and the GLSP is meant as a tool, not an oracle. Most specifically, you should go in and play with the GLSP projections yourself. The app has the flexibility to select certain target or touch ranges. In creating these projections, I’ve only adjusted the ranges for players who have seen a significant change in role. You may prefer a different adjustment. I’m also using the median projections, and there’s often a lot to be gleaned from seeing the low and high projections as well.

Player Notes:

  • Even in standard leagues, wide receivers make cheaper Flex options than running backs in terms of ADP. That’s something to keep in mind when creating your roster in the future and when making trades this year.
  • I never thought I’d be ranking Knowshon Moreno in the Top 20 of anything, but he’s a great Flex play for those who have him as their RB3 or RB4.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have an ascending defense, and it’s a frankly kind of scary to start James Starks. I still like him a lot this week, and he makes an excellent low cost option in weekly games as well.
  • Julian Edelman is known as a PPR dynamo, but with the kind of workload he can expect on Sunday, he makes an excellent standard league Flex.
  • Brian Hartline is a slightly better play than Mike Wallace even though he’s not the same touchdown threat.
  • Chris Givens, James Jones, Mike Williams, and Kendall Wright all make very solid Flex options. In my own leagues, I tend to see them disproportionately on RB-RB-RB rosters. If you’ve already lost one of your RBs to injury, all of those guys are better plays than a low end RB.
  • I bumped the touch numbers for guys like Pierre Thomas, Joique Bell, and Bernard Pierce, all of whom could see a bigger workload than usual. The computer still suggests sitting them if you have other options.
  • Tight ends were projected as excellent options for PPR leagues last week, but they do not fare well this week in standard formats.

The Rankings

 Player Points
DeMarco Murray 11.9
Knowshon Moreno 11
Frank Gore 10.6
Eric Decker 10.6
James Starks 10.5
Julian Edelman 10.2
Anquan Boldin 9.5
Stevan Ridley 9
Darren Sproles 8.7
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 8.6
Chris Givens 8.5
James Jones 8.3
Mike Williams 8.2
Kendall Wright 7.8
Brian Hartline 7.7
DeAngelo Williams 7.5
Mike Wallace 7.2
Ryan Mathews 7.1
T.Y. Hilton 7.1
Lance Moore 7
Michael Floyd 7
Bilal Powell 6.9
Nate Washington 6.9
Steve Johnson 6.7
Torrey Smith 6.7
Pierre Thomas 6.6
Joique Bell 6.3
Miles Austin 6.3
Scott Chandler 6.3
Bernard Pierce 6.2
Mohamed Sanu 6.2
Lamar Miller 6.1
Cecil Shorts 6.1
Nate Burleson 6.1
Steve Smith 6
Owen Daniels 6
Golden Tate 5.8
Jason Snelling 5.6
Denarius Moore 5.6
Josh Gordon 5.6
Brandon Myers 5.6
Danny Woodhead 5.5
Chris Ivory 5.3
Rashard Mendenhall 5.3
Emmanuel Sanders 5.3
Daniel Thomas 5.2
Jacquizz Rodgers 5.2
Daryl Richardson 5
Fred Jackson 5
Jermaine Gresham 4.8
Alshon Jeffery 4.7
Andre Roberts 4.6
Jared Cook 4.6
Kyle Rudolph 4.5
Kenny Britt 4.2
Rueben Randle 4.2
Brandon Pettigrew 4.2
Greg Jennings 4.1
Stephen Hill 4.1
Giovani Bernard 3.9
Rod Streater 3.8
Coby Fleener 3.8
Martellus Bennett 3.5
Ben Tate 3.3
Eddie Royal 3.3
Doug Baldwin 3.2
Dallas Clark 3.1
Leonard Hankerson 3
Jerome Simpson 2.8
Isaac Redman 2.7
Harry Douglas 2.2

Also be sure to check out Jacob Myers with Flex Suspects: Week 3.

Shawn Siegele is the creator of the contrarian sports website Money in the Banana Stand and Lead Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

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