Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon, and Wide Receiver Dissonance
Fantasy drafts are in full swing, and we’ve written a lot recently about our draft strategies and targets at various positions. For this article, I’m taking a look at the wide receivers with the most variability in their projections. These are guys the experts disagree on. Some love ’em, some hate ’em. But at some point on draft night, you’ll have to make a decision about these guys: take them at their current ADP, look for them if they drop, or skip them all together. Are these guys great targets for your team or not? Let’s find out.
To begin, I took Fantasy Pros PPR Projections and pasted them into a table. Then I added some analysis, research, and commentary from Rotoviz. Hopefully this exercise helps distill your thinking about these receivers. Here’s what the table tells us.
- Rank – The Expert Consensus Rank.
- Standard Deviation – The amount of variability in how the experts rank the player. For the top 50 ranked WRs, the average deviation was 5.74. All of these players have a higher deviation, meaning there’s less agreement amongst the experts. The higher the number, the less agreement.
- ADP – The player’s current WR ADP.
- Vs. ADP – The difference between the player’s ADP and their Expert Consensus Rank. Positive numbers are good (the player is expected to outperform their ADP), negative numbers are bad.
- Volatility – I used the Volatility metric developed by Jonathan Bales to highlight the variability present in our WR App projections for the player. The formula is (High Projection – Low Projection) / Median Projection. Lower scores indicate a more stable projection.
- Median Projection – The median PPR points/game projection from our WR App.
- Research – Links to awe inspiring, jaw dropping RotoViz content about the player.
- Target? – Would I target the player at their current ADP? Feel free to disagree!