Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon, and Wide Receiver Dissonance

Image via JDN/Flickr

Image via JDN/Flickr

Fantasy drafts are in full swing, and we’ve written a lot recently about our draft strategies and targets at various positions. For this article, I’m taking a look at the wide receivers with the most variability in their projections. These are guys the experts disagree on. Some love ’em, some hate ’em. But at some point on draft night, you’ll have to make a decision about these guys: take them at their current ADP, look for them if they drop, or skip them all together. Are these guys great targets for your team or not? Let’s find out.

To begin, I took Fantasy Pros PPR Projections and pasted them into a table. Then I added some analysis, research, and commentary from Rotoviz. Hopefully this exercise helps distill your thinking about these receivers. Here’s what the table tells us.

  • Rank – The Expert Consensus Rank.
  • Standard Deviation – The amount of variability in how the experts rank the player. For the top 50 ranked WRs, the average deviation was 5.74. All of these players have a higher deviation, meaning there’s less agreement amongst the experts. The higher the number, the less agreement.
  • ADP – The player’s current WR ADP.
  • Vs. ADP – The difference between the player’s ADP and their Expert Consensus Rank. Positive numbers are good (the player is expected to outperform their ADP), negative numbers are bad.
  • Volatility – I used the Volatility metric developed by Jonathan Bales to highlight the variability present in our WR App projections for the player. The formula is (High Projection – Low Projection) / Median Projection. Lower scores indicate a more stable projection.
  • Median Projection – The median PPR points/game projection from our WR App.
  • Research – Links to awe inspiring, jaw dropping RotoViz content about the player.
  • Target? – Would I target the player at their current ADP? Feel free to disagree!
St. Dev.
Median Projection
17 Wes Welker 6.1 13 -4 0.34 13.3 Wes Welker, Kyle Rudolph, & the 10 Most Overrated Players 18 of 20 comps posted worse fantasy point totals in the year following one like Welker’s 2012. Not a target.
21 Pierre Garcon 6.6 19 -2 0.14 13.2 Overvalued/Undervalued: Fixing Some Broken WR ADPs Same projection as Welker, with less volatility and lower ADP. #Winning Target!
24 Jordy Nelson 9.3 20 -4 0.62 10.6 Jordy Nelson: Fantasy Stud Turned Super Sleeper Projecting based on just his healthy 2012 games produces a more robust 16 PPR points/game projection. No.
30 James Jones 5.9 26 -4 0.46 12.7 Fantasy Points Per Target: WRs Neck & Neck Upside Score with Jordy Nelson A better target than Nelson.
28 DeSean Jackson 6.2 27 -1 0.41 8.2 The WR Arbitrage App likes Brian Hartline, Danny Amendola, and Antonio Brown better Surprisingly, no specific content on DJAX. But Kelly’s offense might give him a boost. Meh
31 T.Y. Hilton 7.6 28 -3 0.44 10.5 On the Fantasy Value of T.Y. Hilton Chris Givens is the same player at a huge discount No
27 Cecil Shorts 6.8 31 4 0.28 11.3 Stevie Johnson, Cecil Shorts, & the 10 Most Undervalued Players The Jags’ most efficient WR, doesn’t have to share targets with Justin Blackmon for 4 games Yuppers
29 Greg Jennings 6.6 32 3 0.57 10.5 Kind of OK as a 4th WR The WR Arbitrage App like Denarius Moore, Mike Wallace, and Kendall Wright better Do I look brainwashed?
34 Anquan Boldin 6.7 34 0 0.43 10.7 Make your own projections based on what you think SanFran will do We haven’t written much about Q. He was Flacco’s most efficient WR, and now gets a QB who was more efficient than Flacco. But SanFran doesn’t pass as much. Maybe.
32 Mike Williams 6 35 3 0.36 12.9 10 Targets in 10 Days: Tampa Mike Williams We just call him “Mr Rotoviz”. Got more targets than VJAX in 2nd half of last season. Most definitely.
36 Josh Gordon 6.5 36 0 0.42 13.5 Josh Gordon Similarity Scores With rookie production like Julio Jones’ & Calvin Johnson’s, why wouldn’t you want to own him? Yessir.
35 Kenny Britt 6.1 37 2 0.53 9.1 Maeby Funk & WR Age Jake Locker ranked 30th in QB efficiency last year. Mmmm, nope.
37 Lance Moore 6.1 38 1 0.58 12 Aaron Rodgers, Doug Martin, and the Eternal Sunshine of the Fantasy Mind Like Pierre Garcon, but much cheaper. Go get him
46 Vincent Brown 10.5 39 -7 N/A N/A Vincent Brown, Jerry Rice, and the Mythical 4.71 40 Smallish, slowish, injured two consecutive years, playing with an aging Rivers in a new offense. Kill it with fire.
40 Chris Givens 8.2 41 1 0.97 7 I Don’t Always Draft Small Speed Receivers, But When I Do… Volatile projection, but better production, better measurables, better offense than V.Brown – and cheaper! Of Course
43 Justin Blackmon 7.6 42 -1 0.49 11.2 Justin Blackmon & Kendall Wright: Dominator Rating & HaSS Red Flags Comes with free 4 game suspension & sideline temper tantrum. Move along, nothing to see here.
45 Golden Tate 11.2 43 -2 0.65 10.7 No Percy Harvin? No Problem! Upside City A Golden Opportunity
39 Emmanuel Sanders 6.1 44 5 0.61 5.9 The Steelers Have A Type Inefficient. Of all Roethlisberger receivers over past 3 years with more than 30 targets, the only one less efficient than Sanders was Rashard Mendenhall. Not a Target.
42 Michael Floyd 8.6 45 3 0.38 7.7 Michael Floyd & Reuben Randle: Projecting WR Breakouts Carson Palmer has to be better than Kolb/Skelton/ Lindley…right? Sure, why not.
44 Denarius Moore 7.8 46 2 0.61 11.9 Denarius Moore, Greg Jennings, an ADP Arbitrage At least he’s cheap. No thanks.
48 Sidney Rice 6.9 47 -1 0.93 9.1 Here’s Why I’m Not Happy Sidney Rice Just Got Stolen From Me A volatile projection, but good potential if healthy and SEA passes more. Yah.
51 Alshon Jeffery 6.6 50 -1 0.71 6.8 Alshon Jeffery, Deandre Hopkins, and Rookie Derangement Syndrome Cutler liked Jeffery just fine in the 3rd preseason game. Yes.

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By James Todd | @spidr2ybanana | Archive

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