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DeMarcoMurray

Via FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2013 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated.

As detailed in Football Outsiders Almanac 2013, Murray has had a litany of injuries going back to his college career at Oklahoma. Last season a sprained foot kept him out of six games. His health risk is very high, which does not help when the offensive line is such a work in progress. Dallas has not had a solid rushing attack in several years, which is partially why Tony Romo has thrown for 9,087 yards since 2011. When you have a budding superstar in Dez Bryant, a future Hall of Fame tight end in Jason WittenMiles Austin, and some other weapons, why would you not keep throwing? Murray’s not a significant part of the Dallas offense.

As a fan of the Cowboys, I know all the ups and downs with DeMarco Murray. As mentioned in Scott Kacsmar’s Football Outsiders article, Murray definitely comes with injury risks. Furthermore, he plays on a pass happy team and the offensive line still has many questions to answer. But I really like the perspective taken on Murray in this RotoViz article on Bill Callahan’s offense. When it comes to drafting Murray, you should draft based on what he is, not so much on what he has done. He’s relatively young, and has close to zero competition in his backfield. In addition, Shawn Siegele states that Murray is a stealth star and the key to a RB/RB/RB draft strategy in 2013 to your fantasy success. And though he has had injuries in the past, check out this arbitrage comparison between Murray and Lesean McCoy. Be sure to keep Murray on your radar if you’re using a RB heavy strategy this year, and make sure to check out his full projections using the RotoViz RB Similarity Score App.

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4 comments
Skipper_Powers
Skipper_Powers

This might be a question for "Rotoviz Staff," but why do the Sim Scores like Murray so much?  In his 11 games last year, he had 20 or more carries only three times.  He cracked 100 yards only once.  He scored only four touchdowns.  But the Sim Scores always rank him somewhere in the #4 to #8 range.  What am I missing?

TheRotoViz
TheRotoViz

@Skipper_Powers The sim scores like Murray based more on what he is, rather than what he did last year. He's young/big and averaged 20 touches a game in the games he played. The sim scores like any back that sees a decent number of catches, and they especially like young big backs that do.

Skipper_Powers
Skipper_Powers

I see.  I should say before I ask this next question that I absolutely love the Sim Scores:  they're by far the best tool I've found for developing my own rankings instead of just using some "expert" cheat sheet.  What I am wondering, though, is when you guys are putting together your own rankings for your drafts, how closely do you hew to the scores?  When do you decide to ignore the numbers because, for whatever reason, they don't "feel" right?

TheRotoViz
TheRotoViz

@Skipper_Powers First I use the app to inform my sense of what kind of players are safe year to year (big bodied young rbs that also catch the ball tend to have the most consistent year to year results). But then I also use the app as a value screen to find guys that are undervalued. But on draft day I take all of that information and try to come up with the best value plan without blindly following numbers. Hope that helps. Do I think Murray is the 4th or 5th best RB? No. But even if he's the 10th, you're getting a bargain to take him.