Regression to the Mean, Fluky Non-touchdowns, and Matthew Stafford’s 2013 Outlook
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Matthew Stafford is probably living a pretty good life. He’s got a missile-launcher for an arm, threw for 10,000 yards over the last two seasons in the NFL’s pass-happiest offense, and he gets to play with one of the all-time great receivers in the midst of both their primes. Plus, he made a solid commercial for ESPN last year, and has a right pretty girlfriend. Do not shed any tears for Matthew Stafford. The fantasy football community doesn’t seem to know what to do with Stafford this year, however. Per the composite rankings on fantasypros.com, he is being drafted on average as the 9th QB at an ADP of 61, after the likes of Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, and the free-falling Tom Brady. Fantasy football writers, on the other hand, seem to consider Stafford to be a solid value pick, ranking him as the 7th QB with an ADP of 52, a full nine spots ahead of where the general public has him. Considering the other high-upside guys going in the 50-60 range (Pierre Garcon, Montee Ball, Chris Ivory), it is absolutely worth digging a little deeper to find out how Stafford will play in 2013.