montariohardesty

So, Hardesty needs a knee scope. Unrelated to his hamstring problem. Which is unrelated to his dislocated thumb. It seems reasonable to suggest that his roster spot might be in jeopardy. And even if he keeps it, it also seems reasonable to suggest he might miss time this season.

What’s a fantasy owner to do?

Don’t worry, RotoViz has this situation covered – before it even happened. Check out this article from last week about Dion Lewis. In it, Ryan Rouillard works through an analysis of Norv Turner’s historical passing and RB usage tendencies and suggests that Lewis might be good for 50 receptions this year. (Read the full article to find out which PPR Stud RB he compares Lewis to.)

I plugged Dion Lewis’ measurables into the RB Sim Lab to create a rough projection for 2013, assuming Hardesty is out of the picture.  I gave Lewis 5 rushing attempts/game, which is what Hardesty got last year (but less than Rouillard’s analysis suggests is likely), at 4.5 yards/attempt (between Hardesty and Lewis’ career averages). Then I added 3 receptions/game for 20 receiving yards/game, a fairly conservative estimate. Here’s the projection:

- Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 2.9 3.3 3.8
Median 5.3 6.7 7.7
High 7.9 9.3 10.7

Not bad for a guy who is essentially undrafted/available on your waiver wire.

Make sure to check out our other RB Coverage, and use our Apps to come up with your own projections.

Subscribe for a constant stream of league-beating articles available only with a Premium Pass.