10 comments
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

I'm a big fan of articles that break down draft strategy since you're ultimately going to be handcuffed by your position in a snake draft. I'm drafting in the 8 spot in a 12 team PPR league (not happy about it) and it doesn't seem like the spot to go RB-RB-RB. At #8 I can reasonably hope for TRich or Forte (staying away from Marshawn and AlMo based on ADP in PPR). However, according to the ADP calculator, it's likely that Dez, AJ or BMarsh will be available at #17 when I come up again. It seems irresponsible to pass on a top-4 WR for the RBs in that range (Bush, SJax, MJD) just for the sake of going RB-RB-RB. 

In round 3 I can probably get Wilson, but what if Colston is sitting there at #41 in round 4? Don't I have to take him there too? That still affords me the opportunity to go after Vereen, Ivory or DRich in round 5. My first 7 picks could be TRich, AJ Green, David Wilson, Colston, Vereen, Decker and Shorts. Doesn't that seem like a killer PPR lineup and the best possible outcome for picking from the #8 spot?

jonasdash
jonasdash

Picking 1st overall in an 8 man league

....   but look at these juicy roster and scoring settings:

QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, WR/RB, WR/RB/TE, K, DEF + 7 Bench
4 point passing TD, .5 PPR, everything else is standard scoring.

I am going to pick Adrian Peterson first, then will probably pick RB RB at 2/3 and RB QB at 4/5.   Then float all the WR's in the mid rounds and grap my TE, and maybe a backup QB in the last 2 rounds before selecting DEF & Kicker. then finish the absolute last round up with any super sleeper that catches my eye.



Thoughts?

Adam Eraky
Adam Eraky

I'm picking at the turn his year in my 10 team league, and I hear you when it comes to strange rules. With Daryl Richardson available in the 5th or possibly the 6th round, would it be acceptable to do something like this: RB/RB at the turn, followed by WR/WR and the turn, followed by WR/RB (richardson)? Or is that gambling too much that he will be there at the end of the 5th/beginning of the 6th?

mefreedman
mefreedman

@Whiskey Tango Foxtrot WTF (awesome name by the way), thanks for reading and responding. I definitely hear what you're saying about RBx3 from the 8 spot in a 12-team PPR league. I think it depends on how much you like Bush (or S-Jax)/mid-round WR v. Marshall (or AJ Green)/mid-round RB. I prefer Bush or S-Jax, because I think that both of them will outperform their draft positions (especially in PPR leagues), and I also think that whatever mid-round WR I get will outperform draft position. Now, I do think that Dez/Marsh/AJ at #17 is a GREAT pick on its own (I love all of those guys!), but it means that you'll have to take an RB later, and I'm not sure on who that would be or if he will outperform his draft position. If you feel confident on the RB you can get later, then take a WR in R2. 

That lineup you mentioned is certainly a great lineup, but you have only 3 RBs -- what are you going to do after Round 7? You need RBs, but the best value after R7 is in WRs, and you're already set at that position, so you might risk picking against value late in the  draft. But if you think you can find good RBs late, then play to your strengths. I've found that I'm better at finding WRs late than I am at finding RBs, and so I normally adjust my strategy accordingly. But that's just me.

Also, I think your decisions early should be based on what you can tolerate. If you know that you'll kick yourself later for passing on a WR (but not RB) in R2 if that guy does well, then you have to make a decision that you can live with. I personally can live with watching early-round WRs do well if I pass on them, because I'm happy with the WRs I get late in drafts (last year that was Josh Gordon, TY Hilton, and Amendola). But I can't stand passing on an RB early and then watching him explode. That kills me. So I compensate for that in my drafting (when I can).

If you think you can't pass on a stud WR at #17, then you can't. I would have a hard time passing on them too, but I think I'll have an even harder time passing on S-Jax or Bush at that position. That's why I'd go RB-RB there. But that's just me.

Good luck with your draft! Let me know how it goes on twitter.

mefreedman
mefreedman

@jonasdash Hey Jonas, thanks for reading and responding! Based on these settings (4 pt TDs, 0.5 ppr, 8-man league, only 1 QB), my general advice would be NOT to take a QB at 4/5, for 2 reasons: 1) QBs aren't worth as much in your league b/c of the 4-pt TDs (and this scoring system means that "rushing QBs" like Newton, RG3, Wilson, Kaep, and Manuel are worth more in comparison to "passing QBs" than they normally are -- not worth more than them, just more than they normally are), and 2) With only 8-starting QBs (and no superflex) you can wait on QB for a LONG time. If you can live with someone like Andy Dalton (or worse) as your starting QB, then you can let your league mates take QBs while you soak up extra RBs and WRs. So my first bit of advice would be to wait as long as you are comfortable in selecting a QB.

If you like the RBx5 strategy in 10- or 12-team leagues, then you probably love it in an 8-team league, because you'll still have some stud WRs sitting there for you at 6/7. In an 8-team league I would seriously consider drafting RBs right away, unless you see a player you just love sitting on the board at 4/5. This approach would give you great starting depth at RB -- you could withstand injuries and bye weeks and you could trade from strength in the season -- and you could still grab lots of WRs later while not having to worry at all about the viability of any late-round RBs. Just my thoughts.

Let me know how the draft goes on twitter! Good luck!

mefreedman
mefreedman

@Adam Eraky Hey Adam, thanks for reading and responding! That's a gamble I would take if 1) you feel fairly confident (50%-ish) that D-Rich will be there at 5/6, 2) you feel a little uncertain about waiting much longer to take the first WRs, and 3) if you feel the risk of losing D-RIch is outweighed by the benefit of grabbing the WRs at 3/4, and 4) if you think that D-Rich going 3/4 is too early (I think it probably is).

I think in most leagues (especially a 10-team league), D-Rich should probably be available at 5/6. And 3/4 just feels too early for D-Rich. If you want him, I think you have to wait so that 1) you don't reach and 2) you allow him to drop to a valuable spot. If you take him at 3/4, a lot of his upside is already baked into the price. It's not an enviable place to take him.

So I think that going RB/RB at 1/2 is good and waiting for D-Rich at 5/6 makes sense. What you do with 3/4 is really just dependent (I think) on what personal strategies you like and what your league mates do. For instance, I tend to think of myself as a guy who weights for QBs -- but if Rodgers is there at 3/4, you'll probably at list think about him, right? At 3/4 that's hard for me to say what to do -- but if you went RB/RB/RB/RB and then went D-Rich/WR at 5/6 I think that could be a winning strategy, and D-Rich at 5/6 I believe is nice value. If he's not there, oh well, go WR/WR, and then plan on taking a late sleeper at RB if possible (the falling Le'Veon?).

Good luck with the draft! Let me know on Twitter what you end up doing. I'll be excited to hear if D-Rich was available for you at 5/6.

jonasdash
jonasdash

Will do, solid point about waiting on a QB.   I am fairly confident that I can wait as late as 8th-10th round to grab someone I'm okay with (Luck/Romo are my bottom threshold)

I'll give you a a shout Monday night when the draft is done!

Adam Eraky
Adam Eraky

@mefreedman @Adam Eraky For sure, thanks for the timely reply (my draft is saturday afternoon). I actually won't be looking at Rodgers, for the simple fact that I play in a keeper league and kept Kaepernick without a loss of a pick. I also traded my first round pick, #10 overall, for someone elses keeper. That keeper happened to be Doug Martin. I feel I'm already ahead, and we haven't even drafted yet. The only reason for me not wanting to start out with RB/RB/RB, is I want to grab Torrey Smith and Jordy Nelson this year, and both sit at right around the same ADP as Richardson. So I either pass on one of the three (Smith, Nelson or Richardson) or I reach for one. I'm not a huge fan of reaching, as I agree with you, it saps the value of player. Do you think I should just pass on one of the two WRs (I really think D-Rich has got a shot at top 15 status this year, so I don't wanna pass on him) and grabbing a value like Stevie Johnson later and pair him with Josh Gordon? There are literally so many WRs I want to draft in the mid rounds its getting kind of silly at this point lol.

mefreedman
mefreedman

@jonasdash I get your point about bottom threshold QBs -- and if I'm not going late-round QB then Romo is normally the QB I would target as maybe the 10th-12th QB off the board. That way, I think he still provides lots of room for upside and his downside is limited (he's very unlikely to be worse than the 10th QB this year).

mefreedman
mefreedman

@Adam Eraky @mefreedman No problem. Knowing that you won't be tempted any QBs who fall in the draft is a big help. If you want, you can just take Bradford, Cutler, Manuel, whoever near the end of the draft if you want another QB -- but that's nice to have Kaep.

It sounds like you have too many guys you want at 5/6! I don't know if you think that any of those receivers are justifiable at 3/4, and I hear what you're saying about all the mid-round WRs. That in part is why I seriously considered RBx5 in the first place. Actually, I just randomly backed into it by eliminating all the low-round RBs and QBs from my board. I think you could get 2 of the 3 at 5/6 and you just have to let the other one go -- I wouldn't reach. I'm adverse to reaching unless I know that I will absolutely regret it later if the guy I passed on breaks out -- and I tend not to have that regret with WRs (for some reason), but I do with RBs. But I wouldn't reach here. Just accept that you may lose 1 of those guys. (And maybe someone will draft one of them and make the decision for you.

In general, because you have a lot of mid-round WRs you like, I would advocate playing into that strength. Plan on getting guys like St. Johnson, Gordon, Givens, TY, Cecil, Mike Williams, maybe Blackmon, Jeffery, Michael Floyd, Randle, Thompkins (whom I love), etc. starting at 5/6 (if D-Rich, Smith, and Nelson are all gone). Those WRs have a big shot of making your draft. Even Greg Little or Malcom Floyd near the end of the draft could be contributors at some point.

If you love mid- and late-round WRs, don't feel too burnt if you can't get a couple WRs you like early. If you target the right WRs later and build you're depth at the position you should do well enough during the season to get into the playoffs, and at that point you'll have a solid idea about which WRs in your lineup are routinely outperforming their draft position.

But that's just the way I'd play it. Maybe the best advice I could say is this: 1) Always go for what you perceive as the value play, but when you don't 2) make sure you grab the player you can't live without. If you lose with him, that's something you can live with. If you lose without him -- and he turns into a stud -- that's the worst feeling. If you're at least partially motivated by that "fear," then I think you can occasionally reach for a player to make sure you get "your guy." (And I know what I just said wasn't wise, but we all function emotionally at times, even if we don't want to. If you can manage your emotions during this process, that helps.) Otherwise, do your best not to reach.

Good luck!