Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller and the Comprehensive RotoViz Running Back Workshop
RotoViz sports a complete suite of RB prediction tools to help you dominate your draft. Over the past couple of weeks I’ve been using all of them to develop my own draft board. This final article brings those pieces together in a comprehensive set of rankings. First, let’s briefly look at what each tool is designed to do.
The original app is designed to provide you with a set of comparable players, an N+1 projection, and a Year Over Year Change Plot that gives a visual representation of how those players performed the following year. The biggest factors tend to be size, age, efficiency, touches, and receptions. Size, age, and receptions play a bigger role than most realize.
In looking at the Sim Scores, I came to the conclusion that Alfred Morris was an underrated stealth star, DeMarco Murray is sitting on post-hype volcano the size of Yellowstone, and Adrian Peterson, god forbid, is overvalued.
This may be my favorite RotoViz app because it allows you to create your own hypothetical runners. You can punch in numbers for Robo Richardson or Cheat Code Charles. One of the best applications of this tool is to help the Sim Scores answer questions they don’t know to ask. What would S-Jax look like in Atlanta? What if Lamar Miller had received starter carries?
I used this App to look at the non-rookie runners with ADPs in the 1-20 range and came to a startling conclusion. Trent Richardson ranked as the No. 1 back. (Please just add, “. . . if he stays healthy,” to every statement about every player; and for the supposedly injury-prone guys, give it a mental italics.)
Then I performed the same analysis on the guys in the 21-50 range. (Perhaps it’s because David Wilson is the most important player on earth, but he somehow ended up on both lists. That’s just one of the reasons I call him the World Turtle.) This is probably the most actionable article I’ve written all summer.
The Cheat Sheet allows you to generate a quick set of rankings and export it to Excel. Like so many of the RotoViz tools, it’s highly flexible and you can spend as much or as little time with it as you want. It allows you to adjust for number of carries and by week of the season. It also allows you to change the ‘games played’ adjustment, which is one of my favorite buttons to fiddle with and see the morphing of results.
Earlier this week, I followed the same method I used in generating a complete set of WR rankings – Brandon Marshall was No. 1 in a mild, but not ridiculous, upset – and published my full set of rankings. After writing that article, I became even more convinced that Ray Rice is the most underrated RB1 this season.
My Final RotoViz Board
These rankings use the three sets of projections. Because they most closely represent my own beliefs and because they may make a few important adjustments for context, I’ve weighted the RB Sim Lab results at 60% and the other two at 20% each. The numbers and rankings are for PPR leagues, but all of the apps can also give you standard and half-ppr numbers. As always, I encourage you to interact with the apps yourself.
The links in the “Notes” section provide an index to the main feature articles we’ve done on these players this summer.
Those looking for my Comprehensive QB Workshop – targets, strategy, and exploded myths – start with Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, and the QB Safety Rankings.