When to Draft Torrey Smith for Value
Torrey Smith is now the primary receiver for Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Gone is Anquan Boldin and the 108 targets he garnered, to be distributed among the rest of the receivers in Baltimore. Smith had 104 targets of his own, but he only hauled in 49 of them for a lackluster catch rate of 47 percent. Of course, the fact he had the highest aDOT of any receiver with more than 20 targets last year probably had something to do with it. Deep passes are naturally more difficult to complete.
Smith’s role should expand this year along with his utilization. As such, his aDOT should drop while his target count and catch rate rise. If he approaches or passes 140 targets and his catch rate improves to a still-modest 60 percent, he’ll catch almost 40 more balls than he did last year, when he scored eight touchdowns.
Alessandro Miglio of Pro Football Focus calls Torrey Smith the most “criminally underrated” receiver going into the the 2013 fantasy season. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Smith’s current WR ADP is 22 for both standard scoring and PPR leagues. But where exactly is a good spot to draft Smith for excellent value? While Bryan Fontaine predicts that Smith will put up top-10 WR numbers at a top-25 price, Jacob Meyers recommend looking later in the draft at guys like Mike Williams who could put up equal numbers at an even cheaper draft price. Nevertheless, our staff at RotoViz still prefer someone like Smith over WRs with a higher ADP like Mike Wallace. So where does that leave us with Torrey Smith? I think it’s safe to say that if you can grab Smith anywhere after the mid to late 6th round, you’ll be very pleased with the results. Make sure to check out Torrey Smith’s full 2013 projections using our RotoViz WR Similarity Score app.