The Quarterback is Toast: Why Michael Vick and Philip Rivers are Done
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At the “ceiling” level, our QB Similarity App projects Michael Vick to score 21.4 fantasy points/game, and Philip Rivers to score 18.5/game. Vick’s projection is the 10th highest ceiling produced by the QB app, and Rivers is the 20th, which you might think would mean I’d recommend them as low ADP bargains for QB1 or QB2 status. But I don’t. This article is about avoiding disaster. In it, I explain why you should avoid Vick and Rivers. The QB App isn’t wrong; indeed, it’s a crucial part of my case. But it’s a starting point, not an ending point, for evaluation. If you examine the year over year change plots produced by the QB App, and dig deeper into historically similar QBs, you’ll start to see why these quarterbacks are toast.