Stevan Ridley and Roddy White Highlight the All-Trap Team
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It may sound strange to suggest players who are fairly valued could somehow hurt your team. The Fantasy Douche and I are often in almost perfect lockstep on player evaluation, and we try to dampen the echo chamber effect by at least disagreeing on how to implement our rankings. Frank’s take is that ideas about ultimate upside are hopelessly narrative-infused and he’d prefer to put together a team that is deep and resilient. I believe the draft is a relatively efficient market that nevertheless makes some huge mistakes. I want to grab those very few guys who project to have value over draft position. I’d prefer to avoid everyone else and target these players even if it means reaching. This belief runs smack into a couple of big issues, namely psychological overconfidence and the myth of the expert. The flip side is that both scouting-based and simple regression projection systems are systematically flawed. If you have a better system – and since you’re here at RotoViz that’s an awfully good start – you want to take full advantage of it by making sure you get one of your guys in each round. Anyway, these guys aren’t overvalued in the true sense of the word. They’re just guys you don’t want on your team anyway. (For the purpose of this exercise, I’ve selected one player from each of the first 10 rounds.)