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In Part 1, I suggested that Reggie Bush would be a solid substitute for LeSean McCoy in 2013 (in part because of his lower ADP), and I also said that I wouldn’t be surprised if some people considered Reggie Bush, by the end of 2013, to be the season’s fantasy MVP. Additionally, I looked at RotoViz’s Similarity Scores App (one of the premier fantasy tools on the internet) to see how players comparable to McCoy and Bush had performed in the past. In this article, I want to take a wider view of their possible performances in 2013 to see if Bush really might be an acceptable substitute for McCoy.

Multi-Year Dynasty Projections

For those of you who missed it, near the beginning of May the inimitable Frank DuPont released his multi-year dynasty projections for RBs, which are based on Similarity Scores App, but instead of merely estimating Y1 fantasy points, the points for Ys 1-5 are projected.

Following is the top portion of the table that Frank created, projecting the future performances (and thus values) of RBs. Also, here’s Frank’s explanation of the table: “here is the table which shows a year by year projection of PPR points, along with two summary columns. In one column I’ve simply added all of the points together and in the other column titled “NPV” I’ve estimated a discounted value of the player’s total points. NPV is equal to Net Present Value, which is the idea that future production is worth less than today’s production. I used a discount rate of 25% in the NPV calculation.”

Name – Age 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total NPV
Doug Martin – 23 18.62 15.53 15.46 16.32 14 79.93 44.02
Ray Rice – 25 16.2 16.93 14.73 13.83 11.16 72.85 40.66
Trent Richardson – 22 13.46 14.57 15.55 14.36 10.19 68.13 37.28
C.J. Spiller – 25 16.3 14.69 14.73 11.62 6.79 64.13 36.97
Alfred Morris – 24 15.78 12.72 9.68 9.05 5.97 53.20 31.38
Arian Foster – 26 14.38 12.85 9.18 7.33 2.99 46.73 28.41
Marshawn Lynch – 26 15.82 13.12 9.18 5.48 .54 44.14 28.17
Stevan Ridley – 23 12.04 9.97 11.5 10 6.31 49.82 28.06
Mikel Leshoure – 22 12.56 11.36 10.18 5.8 0 39.90 24.91
Adrian Peterson – 27 15.18 10.95 9.18 .54 0 35.85 24.07
Jamaal Charles – 26 13.18 12.43 7.25 2.68 0 35.54 23.31
Chris Johnson – 27 13.14 10.59 6.46 3.76 2.77 36.72 23.04
Ahmad Bradshaw – 26 13.35 10.25 7.27 5.08 0 35.95 23.04
LeSean McCoy – 24 12.11 12.29 5.56 6.14 0 36.10 22.92
Matt Forte – 27 11.9 10.98 6.67 6.52 0 36.07 22.63
DeMarco Murray – 24 10.35 11.68 8.22 5.96 0 36.21 22.41
Chris Ivory – 24 11.52 9.96 6.96 3.55 0 31.99 20.61
Reggie Bush – 27 12.76 7.91 4.16 4.17 1.24 30.24 19.51

First of all, note that the multi-year projections already anticipate that Bush will marginally outperform McCoy in 2013. In other words, even though McCoy has higher 2013 upside, the Similarity Scores App applied across a substantial timeframe predicts more fantasy success for Bush in the coming season.

Additionally, McCoy was the 8th RB taken in the RDL draft; Bush was the 19th RB. The multi-year dynasty projections are not all-knowing, and they are based on what was a down year for McCoy in 2012, but in this table McCoy is the 14th dynasty RB, and Bush is the 18th. Based on these projections, at least, McCoy and Bush (both in 2013 and beyond) are fairly similar RBs, and McCoy was thus drafted at a steep premium in the RDL draft (8th v. 14th), and Bush was drafted at the slightest of discounts (19th v. 18th). In sum, Frank’s multi-ear dynasty projections lead me to believe that Reggie Bush is a value not only for 2013 but, at his current dynasty ADP, for 2014-2018 as well.

McCoy v. Bush, 2011-2012

While LeSean McCoy has been a legitimate fantasy asset since being drafted by the Eagles in 2009, Bush didn’t become a pseudo-reliable fantasy until 2011, the first of his two seasons with the Dolphins. How have they compared during the last two years?

LeSean McCoy

Rushing

Receiving

TDs

Year

Age

G

GS

Y/A

Y/G

A/G

Y/R

R/G

Y/G

RRTD

2011*+

23

15

15

4.8

87.3

18.2

6.6

3.2

21

20

2012

24

12

12

4.2

70

16.7

6.9

4.5

31.1

5

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/28/2013.

LeSean McCoy

Rushing

Receiving

Scrimmage

Year

Age

G

GS

Att

Yds

Rec

Yds

YScm

RRTD

2011*+

23

15

15

273

1309

48

315

1624

20

2012

24

12

12

200

840

54

373

1213

5

Total

NA

27

27

473

2149

102

688

2837

25

Avg/Yr

NA

13.5

13.5

236.5

1075

51

344

1419

12.5

Avg/Gm

NA

NA

NA

17.52

79.59

3.778

25.48

105.1

0.926

FP/G Components

 13.5

NA NA NA

3.78

NA

10.51

5.56

FP/G

16.06

Y/A

4.54

FP/G PPR

19.84

Y/R

6.75

Partially Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/29/2013.

In total, over the last two years, McCoy has averaged 217 pts. (268 pts., PPR) per season with positional finishes of #2 and #21. He’s played in 27 games across that timeframe. He’s generally recognized as an elite back, especially in PPR leagues, averaging 51 receptions per year in Andy Reid’s offense the last two seasons.

And what about Reggie Bush?

Reggie Bush

Rushing

Receiving

TDs

Year

Age

G

GS

Y/A

Y/G

A/G

Y/R

R/G

Y/G

RRTD

2011

26

15

15

5

72.4

14.4

6.9

2.9

19.7

7

2012

27

16

16

4.3

61.6

14.2

8.3

2.2

18.3

8

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/28/2013.

Reggie Bush

Rushing

Receiving

Scrimmage

Year

Age

G

GS

Att

Yds

Rec

Yds

YScm

RRTD

2011

26

15

15

216

1086

43

296

1382

7

2012

27

16

16

227

986

35

292

1278

8

Total

NA

31

31

443

2072

78

588

2660

15

Avg/Yr

NA

15.5

15.5

221.5

1036

39

294

1330

7.5

Avg/Gm

NA

NA

NA

14.29

66.84

2.52

18.97

85.81

0.484

FP/G Components

 15.5

NA NA NA

2.52

NA

8.58

2.90

FP/G

11.48

Y/A

4.68

FP/G PPR

14

Y/R

7.54

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/29/2013.

Bush hasn’t been as prolific as McCoy on a per game basis, but he also hasn’t missed as many games across the timeframe (having played in 31), which means that the “injury-prone” Bush might not be any likelier than McCoy to miss games in 2013 (the Similarity Scores App, by the way, says they should play almost exactly the same number of 2013 contests). Additionally, Bush has averaged 178 pts. (217 pts., PPR) per season with positional finishes of #13 and #14. While those numbers fall short of McCoy’s, they are still borderline RB1/2, and remember that Bush was on a team that featured Matt Moore, Chad Henne, and the rookie Ryan Tannehill as its QBs. For the last two years, Bush was playing in a subpar offense that perhaps didn’t make full use of his skillset, especially when one considers that the onetime PPR stud who averaged 80 receptions per season in his first two years and 65 in his first four managed only 39 in his last two.

And finally, we have this tidbit: In the last two years, Bush was more efficient than McCoy by yardage per rush (4.68 v. 4.54) and yardage per reception (7.54 v. 6.75), and the difference between their touches per game (14.29 v. 17.52 rushes, 2.52 v. 3.78 receptions) does not seem significant enough to suggest that Bush would be substantially less efficient if he received a few more touches per game.

What makes me think that Bush could be just as efficient in 2013 as he was in 2012, even with more touches? For starters, Detroit’s offense is much more explosive than Miami’s, and so even if Bush did touch the ball only a few more times each game, at least those extra touches would be accrued within an offense that helps its play makers. To wit, here’s a table showing the top NFL offenses of 2012—and the Dolphins.

2012 Offensive Stats

Tot Yds

Rk

Tm

Pts 

Yds

Ply

Y/P

1stD

  1

New England Patriots

557

6846

1191

5.7

444

2

Denver Broncos

481

6366

1090

5.8

380

3

New Orleans Saints

461

6574

1067

6.2

352

4

Washington Redskins

436

6131

994

6.2

341

5

Green Bay Packers

433

5751

1042

5.5

341

6

New York Giants

429

5687

968

5.9

327

7

Atlanta Falcons

419

5906

1021

5.8

343

8

Houston Texans

416

5953

1090

5.5

341

9

Seattle Seahawks

412

5610

974

5.8

311

10

Baltimore Ravens

398

5640

1042

5.4

314

17

Detroit Lions

372

6540

1160

5.6

382

Avg Team

364.1

5555

1028

5.4

317.6

27

Miami Dolphins

288

4984

981

5.1

288

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/30/2013.

Although the Lions are just above the league average in points scored, they still managed to outscore the Dolphins, who ranked 27th, by 84 pts. Additionally, the only teams to accumulate more yards than Lions in 2012 were the Patriots and the Saints; even if the Lions don’t score that often, they certainly can move the ball, and last year they garnered 1556 more scrimmage yards than the Dolphins. After the Patriots, the Lions earned the most first downs in the league. In such an offense, even if he earned 4.5 more touches per game (which would bring him up to McCoy’s number of touches), Bush would be unlikely to see his efficiency numbers suffer dramatically.

For further evidence, one need look only at what some of the Detroit RBs have done in the last few years, and that’s exactly what I plan to do in Part 3.

 

 

 

 

 

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