QB Performance by Strength of Schedule
This excerpt comes from Football Perspective’s Chase Stuart. Chase is one of the best writers out there, and I strongly encourage you to read the full article. (Hell, read everything he writes).
ANY/A is my favorite explanatory passing statistic— it is very good at telling you the amount of value provided (or not provided) by a passer in a given game, season, or career.
Let’s start with some basic information. The league average ANY/A in 2012 was 5.93.
The point of today’s post is to adjust those numbers for strength of schedule. It’s not really fair to compare Peyton Manning when he plays the Chiefs to Aaron Rodgers against the Bears. Sure, over 16 games the variance in the strengths of opposing defenses gets pretty small, but it does not even out. The solution is this post — a methodology I’ve labeled Rearview adjusted net yards per attempt, which adjusts those numbers for strength of schedule.
Finally, we can compute each quarterback’s Adjusted VALUE, based on his Adjusted ANY/A and number of pass plays.
As he says, this methodology provides a strength-of-schedule adjusted rating of a QBs performance. Although we use different methodologies, it’s interesting to see how his results compare with some of our QB evaluations.
After running through the math, Chase presents his findings. When adjusted for strength of schedule (how good were the pass defenses that the QB faced):
- Jon Moore noted Griffin’s otherwordly AYA, the best for a rookie since 1980.
- Three of the 21 most explosive QB-Receiver combos last year featured RG3.
- Our QB App likes RG3 for 20.6 points/game this year.
- We saw Russell Wilson as possibly the best QB in the second half of last season, and a better option than Andrew Luck.
- Russell Wilson ranks in the top ten in almost every QB metric.
- Our QB App likes Wilson for 20.9 points/game this year.
- Shawn Siegele identified Roethlisberger, Schaub, and Flacco as Stealth Stars earlier this year.
- He also identified Flacco and Roethlisberger as the 3rd and 4th safest QBs this year.
- Our QB App likes Roethlisberger for 21.8 points/game, Flacco for 21.3, and Schaub for 20.7.
- More passing could actually be good for Alex Smith. He could score up to 21 points/game.
- That fits with our theory that Vick and Rivers are finished.
- The Nick Foles era is probably starting in Philly.
- Here’s some context for Foles.
We’ll see how these predictions play out.
- We’ve got some bullish thoughts on Bradford,
- But also some pessimistic thoughts on Bradford.
- We do like Andy Dalton as a sleeper,
- And even kinda-sorta compared him to Tom Brady.
It’s nice to get a bit of outside confirmation that our analysis seems to be heading in the right direction. There’s a lot more great content in Chase Stuart’s article; please give it a read. And dive in to RovoViz for all of our QB-related content.