QB Performance by Strength of Schedule


This excerpt comes from Football Perspective’s Chase Stuart. Chase is one of the best writers out there, and I strongly encourage you to read the full article. (Hell, read everything he writes).

2012 Rearview Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.

ANY/A is my favorite explanatory passing statistic— it is very good at telling you the amount of value provided (or not provided) by a passer in a given game, season, or career.

Let’s start with some basic information. The league average ANY/A in 2012 was 5.93.

The point of today’s post is to adjust those numbers for strength of schedule. It’s not really fair to compare Peyton Manning when he plays the Chiefs to Aaron Rodgers against the Bears. Sure, over 16 games the variance in the strengths of opposing defenses gets pretty small, but it does not even out. The solution is this post — a methodology I’ve labeled Rearview adjusted net yards per attempt, which adjusts those numbers for strength of schedule.

Finally, we can compute each quarterback’s Adjusted VALUE, based on his Adjusted ANY/A and number of pass plays.

As he says, this methodology provides a strength-of-schedule adjusted rating of a QBs performance. Although we use different methodologies, it’s interesting to see how his results compare with some of our QB evaluations.

After running through the math, Chase presents his findings. When adjusted for strength of schedule (how good were the pass defenses that the QB faced):

The 5th and 6th best QBs last year were Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III.

Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Matt Schaub, and Joe Flacco rank 10th, 13th, 15th, and 16th, respectively, placing them in the top half of starting QBs.

Michael Vick and Philip Rivers check in at 23rd and 29th respectively.

Two of our sleeper candidates, Sam Bradford and Andy Dalton, check in at 18th and 25th overall.

We’ll see how these predictions play out.

It’s nice to get a bit of outside confirmation that our analysis seems to be heading in the right direction. There’s a lot more great content in Chase Stuart’s article; please give it a read. And dive in to RovoViz for all of our QB-related content.

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By James Todd | @spidr2ybanana | Archive

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