marquescolston

In this series, I take a position by position look at players whose ADP is broken: they’re being drafted too high based on our projections. I’ll highlight some of our existing analysis of the players, and offer a new insight. Then I’ll offer some better, cheaper alternatives. Throughout, I’ll be assuming a 12 team league using PPR scoring.

Previously I covered Tight Ends. Today’s installment: Wide Receivers. In PPR formats, there are a lot of good candidates vying for your attention. But that doesn’t mean the process of analyzing them can be skimmed over. We still want to find players that offer value relative to their ADP.

Courtesy Fantasy Football Calculator, here’s the current WR ADP.

Pos
Rank

Pick

Name

Team

Bye

Overall

Times
Drafted

1

1.07

Calvin Johnson

DET

9

6.5

775

2

2.02

A.J. Green

CIN

12

14.2

672

3

2.04

Dez Bryant

DAL

11

15.9

777

4

2.06

Brandon Marshall

CHI

8

17.5

850

5

2.10

Julio Jones

ATL

6

21.9

771

6

3.02

Demaryius Thomas

DEN

9

25.9

802

7

3.05

Larry Fitzgerald

ARI

9

28.8

740

8

3.06

Randall Cobb

GB

4

29.7

769

9

3.10

Roddy White

ATL

6

34.0

806

10

3.12

Percy Harvin

SEA

12

36.0

720

11

3.12

Andre Johnson

HOU

8

36.1

838

12

4.02

Victor Cruz

NYG

9

38.5

824

13

4.07

Vincent Jackson

TB

5

42.5

773

14

4.10

Jordy Nelson

GB

4

46.3

723

15

4.11

Marques Colston

NO

7

47.4

781

16

4.12

Dwayne Bowe

KC

10

48.0

800

17

5.01

Wes Welker

DEN

9

49.5

819

18

5.02

Danny Amendola

NE

10

49.9

837

19

5.06

Reggie Wayne

IND

8

54.3

816

20

5.07

Hakeem Nicks

NYG

9

54.8

752

21

6.02

Mike Wallace

MIA

6

61.6

686

22

6.04

Torrey Smith

BAL

8

64.1

658

23

6.04

Pierre Garcon

WAS

5

64.5

686

24

6.05

Antonio Brown

PIT

5

64.8

828

25

6.09

Eric Decker

DEN

9

69.1

688

26

6.12

Steve Smith

CAR

4

72.0

720

27

6.12

Tavon Austin

STL

11

72.3

732

 

Three to Avoid

Roddy White

Reggie Wayne

Mike Wallace

Passer

Receiver

ATTS

RECS

YDS

TDS

INTS

AYA

Ryan Tannehill

Brian Hartline

127

71

1054

1

3

7.39

Ryan Tannehill

Davone Bess

96

57

750

1

3

6.61

Ryan Tannehill

Anthony Fasano

66

40

328

4

2

4.82

Ryan Tannehill

Reggie Bush

52

35

292

2

0

6.38

Ryan Tannehill

Charles Clay

33

18

212

2

1

6.27

Ryan Tannehill

Daniel Thomas

21

14

153

0

0

7.29

Ryan Tannehill

Rishard Matthews

20

11

151

0

1

5.3

Ben Roethlisberger

Mike Wallace

94

53

756

8

3

8.31

Target These Wide Receivers Instead

Marques Colston

  • Also Consider: His fantasy points/target rate was 9th best last season. The Saints get coach Sean Payton back this season. And he’s been a remarkably consistent provider of value throughout his career, having never produced a negative fantasy points over par season. What separates him from Roddy White? About half a fantasy point/game, and he’s available a round later.

Passer

Receiver

ATTS

RECS

YDS

TDS

INTS

AYA

FP

FP/G

Matt Ryan

Roddy White

143

92

1351

7

4

9.17

269.1

16.82

Drew Brees

Marques Colston

130

83

1151

10

4

9.01

258.1

16.13

Torrey Smith

  • Also Consider: Somebody has to get all the targets Boldin used to get. Sure, Rice and Pitta will get a big chunk. But it’s not unreasonable to think Smith could get about 140 targets, which would have been 11th most last year. Using the WR Sim App to look for only games where Smith got 8 or more targets (to project what happens if he gets a 25% increase in targets) bumps his PPR points/game projection to 16. That puts him as high as 3rd overall on our WR Cheat Sheet. Combine that with the fact that a full 55% of his comparables produced more fantasy points/game in the season following one like Smith had last year. And he’s already Flacco’s most efficient receiving option.

Passer

Receiver

ATTS▼

RECS

YDS

TDS

INTS

AYA

Joe Flacco

Torrey Smith

110

49

877

8

2

8.61

Joe Flacco

Dennis Pitta

94

61

669

7

3

7.17

Joe Flacco

Ray Rice

83

61

478

1

1

5.46

Joe Flacco

Jacoby Jones

52

29

398

1

1

7.17

Joe Flacco

Ed Dickson

26

15

161

0

0

6.19

Pierre Garcon

  • Also Consider: Another great option at this ADP would be Eric Decker, but we just wrote about him. So let’s talk Garcon. But for Colston, his 16th-best fantasy points/target in 2012 was better than any of the other receivers discussed in this article. He had more yards/target last year than he did when he played with Peyton Manning, and 50% of his comps produced more fantasy points/game in the season following one like Garcon’s 2012.

Projections

Here are 2013 projections from our WR Sim App. Smith’s are adjusted to reflect my expected targets for 2013, the rest are “raw” projections, straight from the App.

White

Standard

PPR

Wayne

Standard

PPR

Wallace

Standard

PPR

Low

7.6

12

Low

6.8

10.6

Low

6.1

9.4

Median

10

15.6

Median

7.6

12.2

Median

7.1

10.9

High

11.3

17

High

9

13.7

High

8.8

14.2

Colston

Standard

PPR

Smith

Standard

PPR

Garcon

Standard

PPR

Low

8.5

13.1

Low

7.1

10.7

Low

5.8

8.7

Median

10.9

15.7

Median

8.5

13.1

Median

8.7

13.2

High

11.8

18.1

High

10.9

16

High

11.1

16

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