Matthew Stafford, Lamar Miller, and an Optimized Roster


Using the Salary Cap App, I ran a quick roster for an auction league that reflects my sensibilities in terms of risk (aversion). I’m never that crazy about the top of a snake draft, or at least I’m not as excited as others usually are. My feeling is always that the top of the draft contains guys coming off of seasons they’re unlikely to repeat. In an auction format you can actually do the equivalent of what would require trading down in a snake format.

The lineup below is what happens if you assume PPR, with a few flex spots. I set the app to use 70% of the budget on starters. The auction average prices are from Fantasy Pros, so they won’t be the same in every auction. Also, I have some thoughts on this lineup below.

Starter Projected Points: 2155
Starter Salary: 129
Player Position Team Salary Projected Points
Matthew Stafford QB DET 13 296.63
Darren Sproles RB NO 19 239.06
Reggie Bush RB DET 18 256.92
Dwayne Bowe WR KC 14 232.68
Eric Decker WR DEN 13 223.72
Randall Cobb WR GB 26 265.38
Steve Johnson WR BUF 8 216.98
Tavon Austin WR STL 6 205.59
Jason Witten TE DAL 12 217.85
Total Bench Projected Points: 1486
Total Bench Salary: 69
Player Position Team Salary Projected Points
Tony Romo QB DAL 12 284.17
DeMarco Murray RB DAL 21 224.92
Lamar Miller RB MIA 15 211
Shane Vereen RB NE 6 174.03
Jeremy Maclin WR PHI 5 198.14
Lance Moore WR NO 4 193.52
Mike Williams WR TB 6 200.06
  • Reggie Bush is essentially the star of these optimized lineups both in the snake draft app and the auction app. This is a good example where the Fantasy Pros composites are probably more reliable in this instance than the Sim Score apps because the Sim Score apps are blind to situational changes.
  • I like the idea of having 4 starting running backs and no clear cut “stud” because I think it’s possible that between Bush, Miller or Murray I could end up with a stud anyway and I didn’t have to pay for one. This is a numbers based approach.
  • I like to see both Lance Moore and Mike Williams on this roster. They’re both guys that the Sim Score apps like a lot.
  • I could probably squeeze out some more value from WR/RB or even TE if I got rid of relatively high dollar backup QB Tony Romo.
  • I’m probably coming around a little on Matthew Stafford. I think as a real world QB he’s slightly overrated, but as a fantasy QB it’s a different story. The fact that so many of the Salary Cap app’s lineups come back with Stafford in them has definitely been part of changing my mind. I think the argument has two primary components: 1) it’s almost not possible for Staff to be as inefficient as he was last year, and 2) the Lions have a few younger guys that could potentially step up and become the non-Megatron weapons in the offense.
  • Tavon Austin and Randall Cobb aren’t really my guys, but these lineups have enough of my guys in them that I don’t mind hedging a little. Both will also likely be target machines in their offenses.
  • This lineup is designed to be a “hang around” lineup that can withstand bye weeks and injuries. Some people don’t like weekly lineup decisions, but those people are scared pussies. A broad/deep team gives you weekly choices, protection from injuries and also the chance that a few guys come through and turn into studs. However, if as the season went along I got the sense that I didn’t have the strongest starting lineup (even if I’m winning games through bye weeks) then I would start to look for trades that would swap depth for an optimized lineup.

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By RotoViz Staff | @rotoviz | Archive

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