jeremykerley

Santonio Holmes: No schedule for New York Jets return – NFL.com.

There remains a dearth of good news for the New York Jets on the Santonio Holmes recovery front.

The wide receiver told reporters Saturday that there’s still no hard timetable on his return to action after surgery to repair a severe Lisfranc fracture in his foot…

Though the Jets publicly won’t say it, there has to be serious concern about Holmes not being ready for the start of the regular season. If he begins the season on the PUP list, he will be forced to sit out six games.

Bad news for the Jets and Santonio Holmes. It was never likely he’d be back by the start of the season, but this update makes it seem even more unlikely. What’s a fantasy baller to do?

Kerley Who?

Give an upgrade to Jeremy Kerley, that’s what. Last month, Ryan Gilmore pointed out that you could get Kerley, the Jets’ top receiver, for nothing. Make sure to read it to find out why Kerley compares favorably to Randall Cobb and Cecil Shorts.

Is he Cobb/Shorts? No. But he’s a whole lot cheaper, and with more doubt about Holmes’ availability, his team’s number one receiving option. Don’t like that Sanchez or rookie Geno Smith will be throwing him the ball? Fine, but Shorts is getting drafted much higher and who is throwing him the ball?

Last year the Jets finished 25th in pass attempts/game. But now the Jets have hired Marty Mornhinweg as their Offensive Coordinator. In the same role last year for Philadelphia, the Eagles (with rookie Nick Foles playing 7 games) finished 7th in pass attempts. In the past four years, Mornhinweg’s teams have never finished lower than 11th in pass attempts. So Kerley has two potential sources for more targets: the loss of Holmes, and the addition of Mornhinweg.

WR Cheat Sheet App

Since Gilmore broke down Kerley’s surprisingly good point/game projections in his article, I’ll take a slightly different angle here. I’ll use a new (amazing) RotoViz App to create a Custom Wide Receiver Cheat Sheet.

The cheat sheet allows us to make some corrections based on new information. For example, we know that Santonio Holmes is likely going to miss time this season, and probably won’t be the same player if he does. So, we can use the “Weeks of Season” filter on the Cheat Sheet App to remove the games that Holmes played in last year. This allows us to project Kerley’s production for a full season without Holmes in the lineup. Setting the “Weeks” filter to weeks 5-17 last season (Holmes played weeks 1-4) produces the following projection for Kerley.

Comparables Season N+1 Averages
NAME SEAS AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT
Average —- 25.8 189.1 14.7 6.52 3.9 51.42 0.32 0.04 7.9
Format Projection
STD 6.98
PPR 11.6

That’s a pretty healthy projection, in PPR, for a guy that costs nothing to acquire. In the Wide Receiver Cheat Sheet App, it makes him WR31 in PPR formats.

The app projects Kerley to get 6.52 targets a game. Last year, in games without Holmes, Kerley average 6.46 targets a game, so the App’s projection seems…apt.

What Does It All Mean?

Kerley should be on your radar in PPR formats as a low-cost addition to your roster. He may have better than expected upside. Also, you should totally check out the WR Cheat Sheet App to make your own projections and rankings.

 

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