Jordan Cameron is a Trendy Sleeper and Greg Little Isn’t Being Drafted. Makes Sense.
I don’t have anything against Jordan Cameron. I’m sure he’s a great football player and everything. He hasn’t done anything to this point in his career, but I’m sure he’s good nonetheless. Last year he averaged 5.6 yards per target on about 40 targets, so he’s not going to get into Canton at that pace, but I’m sure he’ll turn it around this year. What’s not to like about a guy that has 42 career receptions at the college and pro level combined?
Earlier today I was thinking about Greg Little and how if I wrote an article implying that he might be good this year, I would get an army of naysayers going “NO WEEDEN!” and then I remembered that for some reason Cameron is a trendy sleeper at tight end. I think (I’ll have to check to be sure) that they both have to catch passes from Brandon Weeden.
I know that the next objection that people might come up with as to Little is that we already know he’s shitty. I can’t disagree with that at all. He has been shitty. I’ve been on record in the past saying I didn’t expect big things from him. But the funny thing about rendering judgment on Little and keeping an open mind on “42 Career Catches at the College and Pro Level” Jordan Cameron is that Little is actually the younger of the two.
Little also saw 92 targets last year and did more with those targets than Cameron did with his targets. In fact, it actually looked like Little might have been getting better as the season progressed. In the table below I split Little’s performance up into 1st half and last half. The last half wasn’t awful at all and Little is going to be just 24 years old this year.
|Last Half Greg Little||2012||23||220||8||6.00||3.88||49.75||0.12||(0.04)||8.29|
|First Half Greg Little||2012||23||220||8||5.50||2.75||30.38||0.25||(0.46)||5.52|
To save you the trouble of doing the math, I can tell you that Little’s last half split was an 800 yard/season pace.
To be fair, Cameron is only being drafted as the TE15, so it’s not like he’s going in the first round or anything. But Greg Little is younger, saw more targets last year and was more efficient with his targets, and Little isn’t being drafted at all in a lot of leagues.
I guess there’s reason to be optimistic for Cameron based on the Chud/Norv combo, but it’s not like those guys have never coached up any WRs. In fact, if we look at Greg Little’s comp list from 2012, we see an interesting name:
Don’t be mistaken and think that I’m saying that Little is Vincent Jackson. Cherry picking comps is problematic if your point is to do anything other than open up someone’s mind. That’s all I’m trying to do here.
I don’t actually have any problem with Jordan Cameron and I don’t even really have an opinion as to whether or not he’ll be good this year. Usually I use the criteria that until we see it, it’s probably safe to be skeptical. Sometimes that criteria will let you down, but most of the time it’s going to be right. As to Greg Little, he actually has shown signs that he might not be terrible. The best part is that nobody seems to have noticed. I have Little as a 5th WR in a league and I think that’s about where he represents value. In some leagues you won’t go 5WRs deep on your roster, but in the ones you do, don’t overlook Greg Little.