In Too Deep: Drafting Quarterbacks in 2013
Last year, Matthew Stafford was the 10th-best quarterback in fantasy football. He produced 263 points. That was more points than every single running back in football except for Adrian Peterson. More points than Arian Foster or Doug Martin. This year, Stafford is getting drafted right about 64th overall, or the 6th or 7th round. Foster and Martin are going 2nd and 3rd overall. You obviously shouldn’t draft Stafford ahead of those guys – his value relatively to other quarterbacks is low enough that he can be got with a late mid-round pick.
And that’s what this all comes down to – value. If you take Aaron Rodgers with your pick in the first round, you’re getting a consistent, top QB, but there is a significant opportunity cost. You could wait 36 picks and take Matt Ryan with the 54th overall selection – his average draft position so far this year – and replicate 88 percent of Rodgers’ value. If you waited that long between running backs, you’d be going from say, Marshawn Lynch to Chris Ivory.
With the emergence of star rookie quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and RGIII, the quarterback fantasy draft pool for 2013 is extremely talented. In his analysis of just how deep the quarterback position is, Alex Hampl shows that this might be the year where you can wait until the 9th, or even the 10th round to draft a starting QB. To put his argument in simple terms, why draft Aaron Rodgers in the first or second round when you can have guys like Matt Stafford or Tony Romo for a much cheaper price? We agree that there are a ton of options at QB in later rounds. Check out Shawn Siegele’s advice on quarterbacks you can build your draft strategy around this year based on round. But if fantasy owners should avoid taking QBs early like it’s 2011, what strategy should we adopt? Don’t worry, Shawn Siegele is again here to the rescue! Check out his in-depth argument on why the RB-RB draft strategy is back. Other positions like running back are very top heavy this year, making it essential to secure studs in these positions with your high draft picks. The fact is, with such a talented pool of quarterbacks to choose from, it would be silly to waste high draft picks on them in your 2013 draft. To see how close the projections for QBs are this year, make sure to check out the RotoViz QB Similarity Score App.