In Too Deep: Drafting Quarterbacks in 2013
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Via Why You Can Wait On a QB.
Last year, Matthew Stafford was the 10th-best quarterback in fantasy football. He produced 263 points. That was more points than every single running back in football except for Adrian Peterson. More points than Arian Foster or Doug Martin. This year, Stafford is getting drafted right about 64th overall, or the 6th or 7th round. Foster and Martin are going 2nd and 3rd overall. You obviously shouldn’t draft Stafford ahead of those guys – his value relatively to other quarterbacks is low enough that he can be got with a late mid-round pick. And that’s what this all comes down to – value. If you take Aaron Rodgers with your pick in the first round, you’re getting a consistent, top QB, but there is a significant opportunity cost. You could wait 36 picks and take Matt Ryan with the 54th overall selection – his average draft position so far this year – and replicate 88 percent of Rodgers’ value. If you waited that long between running backs, you’d be going from say, Marshawn Lynch to Chris Ivory.With the emergence of star rookie quarterbacks such as Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and RGIII, the quarterback fantasy draft pool for 2013 is extremely talented.