I’d Like a Mulligan Please – Reversing Course on Some Earlier Thinking
I typically start my thinking each year with a pretty wide range of value ideas that I will then narrow down over time by scrapping the ideas that are more marginal. I’d like a mulligan on some earlier stuff that I’ve written, so I’m going to list those things now.
I was initially attracted to getting a lot of targets for a really low ADP price tag, but I’m going to move on from Hartline. He’s not likely to be on any of my teams now. I don’t think he has a very high chance of being negative value for his drafters, but I also think he might have a ceiling that isn’t that much higher than his draft spot. In terms of getting a lot of targets for a low price, 19 of Hartline’s targets last year came in one game. If I use the cheat sheet app to throw that game out, Hartline’s median projection puts him in the 40s among WRs. That’s more marginal value and not what I’m looking for. So I’ll take my mulligan and say that my earlier Hartline stuff isn’t probably of the league winning variety (even at WR50).
I don’t really need to spill a lot of pixels on this one other than to say that my targeting of Ingram will be 100% correlated with my perception of how much the coaching staff wants to use him. If they don’t want him to be heavily involved in the offense, I don’t want any part of him in fantasy. Offseason reports have been that Pierre Thomas will essentially be the lead back, or that the two will split time. That’s a “move along, nothing to see here” type of situation. If things change in camp, or if Thomas is injured, then I’ll be back on the Ingram bandwagon, which wasn’t really a bandwagon.. it was more of a motorcycle side car. I was going to say clown car, but then I realized that despite their size, clown cars are densely populated. Maybe instead of the Mark Ingram Bandwagon, it’s the Mark Ingram Ambulance. Ambulance has the right population density and the place you’re going is fitting for owning Ingram. Also, if the coaching staff ever gets back in on Ingram, I’ll be right there too.
I’m not really changing my thinking on Kerley, and I only wrote about him once anyway, but I am taking him off my targets list. I just tend not to own guys like Kerley unless I’m 8 or 9 guys deep at WR. I would rather have all of Brandon LaFell, Greg Little, and Darrius Heyward-Bey than Kerley. This might seem in conflict with my guidance that you’re better off taking guys that have already done something. But in this case I think all three of those guys have at least shown something on the field and they’re all closer to prototypical WR size. They also all start for their NFL teams (subject to DHB earning a starting spot).
When facts change I’ll change my position, and facts have changed. Last time I wrote about these two guys, both seemed like they could be hurt to start training camp. MJD is now closer to being healthy. I’ll probably keep an eye on MJD just to see how his camp shapes up, but I doubt I’ll own him this year. The better/more healthy he looks in the preseason, the higher his draft cost is likely to go, and yet he might be like an old house with structural damage that has a bunch of spackle on the walls. The risk might not be readily visible. He’s an older back, who has been injured a good amount lately. But it’s also unlikely now that I’ll own Bradshaw this year, due to his continuing bad wheel.
This is another one where I would say that the odds have swung slightly against me since I wrote my post saying that I would own them in a re-draft. I think if either guy gets on the field then I would still own them in a re-draft just for the rushing yards (remember that people said that RGIII wasn’t a very talented runner and they said that Russell Wilson wouldn’t run because that wasn’t his game – well, rookie QBs tend to run a little more than vets). But both guys probably have an uphill battle to start now, which affects the odds that they’ll be fantasy ownable this year. Until the picture clears up at all, I’m taking a mulligan.
That’s all. One thing that I think is important to illustrate with an article like this is that I really do try to be fluid in my thinking. It doesn’t always work out, but I am always trying to look at my existing beliefs and see where I might have the most potential to be wrong (or actually in my case, the most potential to make a bad risk adjusted bet, since a lot of my targets are long shots where I think they have a 25% chance of being a stud while the market is assigning them a 5% chance).