MattForte

Recent news on Matt Forte – Chicago Bears – Rotoworld.com.

According to the Chicago Sun Times, the Bears’ “underutilization” of Matt Forte was “one of the factors” behind GM Phil Emery’s firing of Lovie Smith.
Forte set career lows in the passing game in 2012. Emery hired the right man to correct this flaw in pass-happy coach Marc Trestman. Trestman coached the Raiders’ 2001-2002 offenses, when Charlie Garner racked up 72 and 91 receptions, respectively. Trestman’s quick-hitting pass game will undoubtedly play to versatile Forte’s strengths, especially as a receiver.

This kind of utilization could make Forte not only a RB1, but a top five RB.

I’ve been excited about Trestman to Chicago for some time. I wrote here about the potential 70 catch season that Forte could have.  Many people have pointed out the great seasons Charlie Garner had under Marc Trestman. But it wasn’t just him. Here are the receiving stats only for the top RB in each of Trestman’s eight seasons as an Offensive Coordinator. Fantasy points are in PPR format.

Player Age G Rec ▾ Yds Y/R TD TD/G R/G Y/G FP FP/G
Eric Metcalf 21 16 54 397 7.4 4 0.25 3.4 24.8 117.7 7.36
Derek Loville 27 16 87 662 7.6 3 0.19 5.4 41.4 171.2 10.70
Terry Kirby 26 14 52 439 8.4 1 0.07 3.7 31.4 101.9 7.28
Larry Centers 30 16 69 559 8.1 2 0.13 4.3 34.9 136.9 8.56
Adrian Murrell 29 16 49 335 6.8 0 0.00 3.1 20.9 82.5 5.16
Michael Pittman 25 16 73 579 7.9 2 0.13 4.6 36.2 142.9 8.93
Charlie Garner 30 16 91 941 10.3 4 0.25 5.7 58.8 209.1 13.07
Charlie Garner 29 16 48 578 8 2 0.13 4.5 36.1 117.8 7.36
Average 27.13 15.75 65.38 561.25 8.06 2.25 0.14 4.34 35.56 135 8.57

 

Takeaways:

  • Average age of these RBs is 27. Matt Forte is 27.
  • Average yards/reception for this group is 8.06. Forte’s career average is 8.7
  • As a group, these RBs averaged 8.57 PPR fantasy points/game JUST FROM RECEIVING.

It sure looks like Forte fits the Trestman profile. To get a little flavor of what his season might look like, I plugged Forte’s age, weight, and last season’s rushing attempts and yards/game into our RB Sim Lab App. Then I plugged in the average receiving yards/game from the table above. I also added the average receiving TDs/game from the table above (0.14) to Forte’s career rushing TD/game (0.34). Here’s the projection:

- Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 9.9 11.2 12.1
Median 13.5 14.7 15.9
High 15.7 17.8 19.8

Matt Forte is already being drafted at the top of Round 2 in PPR leagues, but surprisingly, his ADP is actually dropping. He seems fairly valued, with still some potential upside, at that ADP. His high end 19.8 points/game projection would have finished as RB4 in 2012 PPR leagues.

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