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From the Buffalo Bills official team website:

Nathaniel Hackett’s offense is going to be operating at warp speed. Provided the team makes first downs and holds onto the ball Buffalo’s plays per game is going to take a sizable jump up.

Last year Buffalo ranked 28th in the league averaging 61.4 plays per game. New England led the league with a mark of 74.3. At Syracuse Hackett’s offense averaged 79.1 and in college it should be noted there are more clock stoppages on out of bounds plays…

…Spiller could arguably touch the ball 30 times a game if the offense is operating efficiently…At Syracuse they ran about 41 run plays per game, so there should be enough plays for the ball to be shared effectively.

C.J Spiller is just as ridiculous as advertised. I myself took him in the first round of the Rotoviz Dynasty league and feel pretty good about the pick, but even I wasn’t aware of this information. Given that Spiller scored 218 standard points on only 250 touches, the concept of him pushing 300 or even 350 total touches is pretty intriguing. All offseason, LeSean McCoy has been climbing up the RB big board due to the perceived tempo of the yet-unknown Chip Kelly offense, and Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley both remain attractive options due to the sheer number of plays the New England offense will run. If Marrone’s offense looks anything like this article suggests, Spiller has a clear shot at being the most valuable fantasy player.

Shawn Siegele did a an amazing job projecting the top 20 RB’s with the custom sim score app, so I decided to play around with the app to project Spiller based on this extremely optimistic projection. Spiller averaged 78 rushing yards and 28.5 receiving yards per game last year, so I rounded down to 75 and 27, but upped the carries per game to 20 (which would equate to essentially what the quoted piece suggested) and used Spiller’s .9 touchdowns per game. Obviously, as I stated, this is a VERY optimistic projection, but it’s all based in some fragment of reality and paints a picture of the very top range of outcomes for Spiller.

Here are Spiller’s N+1 Projections per game:

- Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 13.2 14.3 15.4
Median 14.9 16.2 17.3
High 16.2 17.8 19.3

As if those numbers weren’t intriguing enough, these are the 20 most comparable fantasy players and season’s to Spiller’s top-level projection:

NAME SEAS OFF AGE WT GMS CARS YDS YPC TDS recs recYDS recTDS
Clinton Portis 2008 WAS 27 205 16 21.38 92.94 4.35 0.56 1.75 13.62 0.00
Shaun Alexander 2003 SEA 26 225 16 20.44 89.19 4.36 0.88 2.62 18.44 0.12
Maurice Jones-Drew 2010 JAC 25 208 14 21.43 94.50 4.41 0.36 2.43 22.64 0.14
Joseph Addai 2008 IND 25 210 12 12.92 45.33 3.51 0.42 2.08 17.17 0.17
Shaun Alexander 2002 SEA 25 225 16 18.50 72.69 3.93 1.00 3.69 28.62 0.12
Adrian Peterson 2010 MIN 25 217 15 18.87 86.53 4.59 0.80 2.40 22.73 0.07
Adrian Peterson 2011 MIN 26 217 12 17.58 80.33 4.57 1.00 1.50 10.92 0.08
Chris Johnson 2011 TEN 26 191 16 16.38 65.44 4.00 0.25 3.56 26.12 0.00
Marshall Faulk 2004 STL 31 211 14 13.93 55.29 3.97 0.21 3.57 22.14 0.07
Domanick Davis 2005 HOU 25 216 11 20.91 88.73 4.24 0.18 3.55 30.64 0.36
Clinton Portis 2007 WAS 26 205 16 20.31 78.12 3.85 0.69 2.94 24.56 0.00
Curtis Martin 2001 NYJ 28 210 16 20.75 93.69 4.52 0.62 3.31 20.00 0.00
Travis Henry 2003 BUF 25 215 15 22.20 90.07 4.06 0.67 1.87 10.53 0.07
Edgerrin James 2004 IND 26 214 16 20.88 96.94 4.64 0.56 3.19 30.19 0.00
LaDainian Tomlinson 2005 SD 26 221 16 21.19 91.44 4.32 1.12 3.12 22.88 0.12
Shaun Alexander 2004 SEA 27 225 16 22.06 105.94 4.80 1.00 1.44 10.62 0.25
LaDainian Tomlinson 2008 SD 29 221 16 18.25 69.38 3.80 0.69 3.25 25.69 0.06
Deuce McAllister 2003 NO 25 232 16 21.88 101.94 4.66 0.50 4.31 31.94 0.00
Matt Forte 2009 CHI 24 218 16 16.19 57.62 3.56 0.25 3.56 29.44 0.00
Brian Westbrook 2009 PHI 30 200 8 7.75 34.25 4.42 0.12 3.12 22.62 0.12

You may remember those names from every fantasy football championship team ever. This purpose of this exercise isn’t to tell you that C.J Spiller for sure will finish as the number 1 overall fantasy player, but rather to demonstrate his range of outcomes. While Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson have their ceilings priced into their ADP, Spiller being chosen as in the latter half of the first round represents a unique opportunity for snake drafters to get an elite running back with a great amount of upside and also pair him with an elite WR along the lines of Brandon Marshall, A.J Green or Dez Bryant. Take advantage of the mistakes of the masses.

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Davis Mattek is a 21 year old English Major at Kansas State University. He can be found most days writing about fantasy sports for www.sportswunderkind.com , FantasyInsiders, RotoAcademy and Rotoviz.

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