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Alfred Morris Preparing for Secondary Breakout

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Alfred Morris is raising the bar | Pensacola News Journal | pnj.com.

Those who have been following my stealth star profiles know I believe Alfred Morris is the next Terrell Davis. Fortunately for you, drafters continue to undervalue the man who’s also a linchpin of our 10 in 10 series.

I’m currently participating in the Iron Throne Dynasty startup. I selected J.J. Watt with the No. 2 overall pick in my quest to land the NFL’s rarest players. Had I gone with an offensive player, Morris would have been in the discussion.

The Iron Throne is a 0.5 ppr format, exactly the type of scoring system where you might get a great value on Morris. And that’s definitely how it turned out. Morris was selected No. 16 overall. Because the ITL is a triple-flex league and because RotoViz is one of the only places on the internet for excellent half-ppr projections, we can compare Morris head-to-head with some of the running backs and wide receivers taken ahead of him.

I’ve used the .5 ppr function on the RotoViz RB and WR Similarity Score apps to create projections for Arian Foster (27 years, No. 4 overall), A.J. Green (25, No. 5), C.J. Spiller (26, No. 6), LeSean McCoy (25, No. 13), Percy Harvin (25, No. 15).

Alfred Morris Arian Foster A.J. Green LeSean McCoy C.J. Spiller Percy Harvin
Low 9.4 10.6 9.7 5.8 8.8 8.8
Median 13 12.3 11.9 12.1 13.3 11.3
High 15.6 14.9 14.1 17 16.6 12.7

C.J. Spiller is just as ridiculous as advertised and the only player with an advantage on Morris at two projection levels. Unfortunately, Spiller probably carries some unaccounted for risk playing in Buffalo with a rookie head coach and unsettled quarterback situation. Moreover, Morris holds an age advantage on all of these players, but his biggest advantage might be the potential second year leap.

Last year, I was going in there like a lost little puppy. This year, having had that experience and gaining that knowledge of last year, I’m a lot more confident and more comfortable. The more comfortable you get with it, the better you can go out there and do it. It eliminates the thinking process. You can go out there and have some fun.

Drafters seem to be forgetting Morris just rushed for the third most yards of any rookie in NFL history. (Check out eight other crucial items the fantasy community is forgetting and get bonus quotes from the world’s greatest contemporary screenwriter.) Savvy drafters will pluck Morris no later than the 8-10 range in most formats. You definitely don’t want to make the mistake of taking a receiver in the early second round with Morris still on the board.

As I explain in my J.J. Watt piece, I think you can win a draft in the first round. Don’t bypass upside in the early going. If you’re in search of actionable fantasy intelligence on the other players in the above chart, check out Arian Foster, LeSean MCoy, and the Elusive All-Purpose Running Back, The Curse of the Curse of 370 (Foster), Dynasty Building Block: LeSean McCoy, Dynasty Building Block: A.J. Green, Matt Ryan, A.J. Green, and Why Cheaper Isn’t Always Better, and The Harvin Series.

Shawn Siegele is the creator of the contrarian sports website Money in the Banana Stand and Lead Redraft Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

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