Football

Reggie Bush Will Be the 2013 Fantasy MVP Runner-Up!, Part 1

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Perhaps the real title to this article should be “Why I Chose Reggie Bush over LeSean McCoy in the RotoViz Dynasty Veteran Draft.” I don’t actually think that Reggie Bush will be the second most valuable fantasy player in 2013, but since my last RDL article on Steven Jackson had a similar title, I thought I’d roll with it.

On June 1, the guys at RotoViz launched the startup veteran draft for the RotoViz Dynasty League (RDL), a venture of which we’re already proud. (And, as an aside, I am happy to say that I, as commissioner and a player, have found FleaFlicker to be an excellent hosting site for our league, which you can follow here.)

In an admitted instance of douchebaggery, one of my previous articles detailed the strategies I used in the RDL veteran draft: trading down to acquire more “starter quality” picks; drafting players with depressed values; and targeting older players who are likely to outperform their draft positions in 2013.

One of the most “dangerous” components of my decision to trade down was the bypassing of LeSean McCoy as my RB2 at the 1.14/2.1 turn. In general, I’m a big fan of McCoy. In my main dynasty league I selected McCoy in 2009 with the #1 overall pick in our first rookie draft (since I decided he was the one rookie I could not live without), and that team has been my favorite to own since that time. McCoy’s been on many of my teams in the past 4 years, and I’ve generally been successful, so I’ve formed a strong emotional connection to McCoy—and I’m a Cowboys fan. Passing on McCoy, in a highly competitive dynasty startup draft, especially when I never imagined that he would fall to my pick in the first place, was one of the hardest fantasy decisions I’ve ever made. I agonized about it for hours, to the chagrin of my league mates.

But ultimately I decided that my team would be better served if I traded down because of the RBs I expected to be available later in the draft. Specifically, I had Reggie Bush in mind, and while I think McCoy provides great value at the turn of Rounds 1 and 2 I also think that Reggie Bush—selected at the turn of Rounds 3 and 4—provides immense (and perhaps more) value as my RB2. In this piece, I wish to show why I think the latter (available much later in the draft) is a reasonable substitute for the former. At the end of 2013, I wouldn’t be surprised if some considered Reggie Bush to be the season’s fantasy MVP.

LeSean McCoy v. Reggie Bush

LeSean McCoy is yet to be the sole subject of a RotoViz article, but that doesn’t mean we don’t love him. After trading up for the #14 pick in the RDL Draft, Bryan Fontaine almost took him before deciding on Jimmy Graham. Instead, McCoy went off the board two picks later when Charles Kleinheksel won a bidding war for the pick. In his piece on Round 2 of the RotoViz Dynasty Draft, Shawn Siegele had this to say about the McCoy:

16. LeSean McCoy (Charles Kleinheksel via trade) – McCoy probably falls because of 2012 injury woes and the possibility that his receptions will decline in the Chip Kelly system. McCoy is still very young; he’s Doug Martin’s senior by six months (for more fun RB age facts, try Trent Richardson, Maeby Funke, and RB Age). PFF has McCoy as the No. 4 dynasty back, making him a ridiculous value here.

And how much attention has Bush received from RotoViz? Almost none. Let me put it this way: In one of Frank DuPont’s columns providing links to a bunch of stuff you have missed because the internet is vast (5-28-13), one of the linked articles is on Reggie Bush and his likely 2013 production. That’s about it. No articles on one of the steadiest and most underappreciated RBs of the last two years . . . who just happens to be going to a new offense that could potentially boost his PPR value.

Regarding this negligence, I have two suppositions: 1) Perhaps as a staff we’ve spent too much time thinking about rookies and young players the last few months and consequently ignoring many of the veterans we already “know,” and 2) when drafts come around the time we’ve invested in analyzing the younger players will lead directly to our selecting them instead of players like Bush, even in redraft leagues (or, if one wants to think about this via the Buddhist lens of the four noble truths of fantasy football according to Davis Mattek, we suffer through our “attachment” to these players). In other words, I think that (generally speaking) the amount of analysis devoted to Bush correlates inversely to the value he currently represents. Right now, in comparison to someone like McCoy, Reggie Bush provides great value. He’s so undervalued right now we should just start calling him “Reginald Alfred.”

Bush was the #42 pick in the RDL veteran draft, and his ADP on My Fantasy League is 38.92 for redraft leagues and 44.96 in keeper leagues. At those valuations, he’s a steal, especially if one is thinking only about 2013—and for the purposes of this article and the RDL, I am. Here’s why I think that Reggie Bush will be a reasonable substitute for LeSean McCoy in 2013.

[Yes, significant parts of what you just read we’re lifted from my S-Jax article. I felt that, in an article suggesting that Bush is a rough (and less expensive) copy of McCoy, copying myself was an aptly decorous strategy.]

First, let’s look at what RotoViz’s (excellent) Similarity Scores App has to say about these two players. [By the way, I encourage you to play around with this app on your own. It’s one of the best fantasy tools on the internet.]

Here’s the Projection Summary for LeSean McCoy.

Projection Summary

LeSean McCoy

Standard

PPR

Low 4.9 6.7
Median 10.4 13.2
High 14.9 19.1

Average of Season N+1 Results

NAME

SEAS

TM

AGE

WT

GMS

CARS

YDS

YPC

TDS

recs

recYDS

recTDS

Year N+1 Average ***** ***** 25.6 212.8 12.2 13 57 4.37 0.3 2.7 21.8 0.12

Regardless of format, McCoy looks very strong. And although one would ordinarily expect a decline in production because of Andy Reid’s departure I generally think that McCoy will produce at least the median score in Chip Kelly’s offense.

And what about Reggie Bush? Here’s his Projection Summary.

Projection Summary

Reggie Bush

Standard

PPR

Low 5.3 7.2
Median 7.5 10.3
High 10.6 13.1

Average of Season N+1 Results

NAME

SEAS

TM

AGE

WT

GMS

CARS

YDS

YPC

TDS

recs

recYDS

recTDS

Year N+1 Average ***** ***** 28 211.5 12.3 11.8 49.2 4.18 0.2 2.2 17.9 0.03

Now, I admit that the projection summary (which is based on last year’s performances and ignorant of changes in situation) predicts that McCoy will markedly outperform Bush, as the former’s median scores are about 3 pts. higher and his high scores are about 4 and 6 pts. higher than Bush’s (depending on format). But you’ll also notice that the projection summary anticipates Bush having a higher floor than McCoy in 2013. I’m not saying that we should make draft picks based solely on who has the highest downside, but I do think that we can make something of the fact that, at a clearly identifiable point in their projectable range of possibilities, Bush could be expected to outperform McCoy. In other words, Bush outperforming McCoy in 2013 is not outside the reasonable range of possibilities. It might not happen, but it could. And even if it doesn’t happen, I still think that Bush at #42 is better than McCoy at #16.

Why exactly do I think Bush will be a better draft pick in 2013 than McCoy? I’ll delve into that more in Part 2.

 

 

 

 

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By Matthew Freedman | @MattFtheOracle | Archive

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