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cam newton

Cam Newton’s 2012 season provides a very interesting case study on the plight of the quarterback position in fantasy football. His numbers showed a quarterback who slightly regressed, despite a stellar second half of the season. Was Newton’s poor start to the season a product of the league “figuring him out”, or poor play, or maybe even just a tough patch in the schedule?

Despite the former Heisman Trophy winner’s up-and-down season, Cam eclipsed 700 rushing yards for the second consecutive season, and leads all QBs with 22 rushing scores since coming into the league in 2011. He is 24 years old entering just his third NFL season.

The important question to answer regarding Newton is what to expect from him in 2013.

I’ve read a bit of concern recently over Carolina supposedly limiting the number of designed QB runs, but as a potential Newton owner, this is fantastic news. I concede it would be a blow to his value if the Panthers decide to take the most dangerous aspect of Newton’s fantasy game away from him, however I’m just not convinced they will.

Generally, I’m not concerned with things that come out of a coach’s mouth in June. I’m going to stubbornly view Newton the same as I did before Rivera’s comments and see this as an opportunity to get the Carolina signal caller at a discount. If you are going to make me choose between Newton’s proven talent and a potential change in offensive scheme, I’m taking the talent every time.

Last week I outlined one of my favorite draft strategies, DGAF, which primarily relies on following your pre-draft rankings despite positional or roster trends that take place during the draft. The next aspect in the DGAF strategy involves blocking out certain offseason information. In the Twitter world, fantasy footballers are giving so much information that there is no possible way it could all be helpful. Coaches’ comments in June regarding offensive scheme – I’m not putting stock into it right now.

To compile my DGAF rankings, I used our world famous RotoViz Similarity Score apps. Here’s a look at my QB rankings based on those sim. scores:

2013 Similarity Score Projections

QB

Yrd/Gm

TD/GM

INT/GM

R.Yrd

RushTD/GM

FanPts

Rank

Cam Newton

255.1

1.7

0.74

29.3

0.24

330.144

1

Aaron Rodgers

248.1

1.7

0.61

9.9

0.15

288.064

2

Peyton Manning

270.1

1.8

0.8

2.5

0.08

286.944

3

Ben Roethlisberger

244.9

1.7

0.7

5.6

0.08

270.976

4

Matt Ryan

256.3

1.6

0.92

3.6

0.08

265.152

5

Tony Romo

259.8

1.6

1.07

3.8

0.06

263.392

6

Drew Brees

261

1.6

1.02

2.9

0.05

262.56

7

Tom Brady

261

1.6

1.02

1.7

0.05

260.64

8

Michael Vick

202.6

1.3

0.94

20.9

0.22

252.384

9

Ryan Fitzpatrick

227.2

1.5

0.93

9.4

0.1

251.168

10

Robert Griffin III

191.4

1.2

0.73

26.7

0.21

250.496

11

Matt Schaub

242.1

1.5

0.79

3.7

0.04

248.064

12

Andy Dalton

226.4

1.6

0.96

6.1

0.05

246.496

13

Sam Bradford

226.5

1.5

0.81

6.4

0.08

245.92

14

Colin Kaepernick

186.2

1.2

0.76

26.5

0.2

245.408

15

Joe Flacco

235.4

1.5

0.71

3.4

0.04

244.576

16

Eli Manning

232.3

1.6

0.92

3.2

0.02

243.392

17

Russell Wilson

194.1

1.2

0.74

17.7

0.22

238.624

18

Philip Rivers

229

1.5

0.93

3

0.03

235.36

19

Carson Palmer

239

1.4

0.92

2.2

0.04

235.2

20

Josh Freeman

227.9

1.4

1.01

6.5

0.05

234.496

21

Matthew Stafford

230.5

1.4

1.03

3.2

0.03

228.64

22

Andrew Luck

216.4

1.3

1.02

8

0.08

225.856

23

Jay Cutler

206

1.2

0.91

10.5

0.1

220.48

24

Christian Ponder

199.7

1.1

0.78

9.4

0.08

208.448

25

Alex Smith

181.6

1

0.67

11.1

0.16

202.624

26

Brandon Weeden

181.6

1

1.03

5.9

0.07

179.904

27

Mark Sanchez

161.1

0.8

1.12

4.1

0.05

147.744

28

Keep in mind I’m not saying Tony Romo should be drafted before Drew Brees. The Sim Score app doesn’t know that Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely no longer a starter or that Michael Vick is competing for his job in a new system. To get the most out of these sim score outputs, we need context. And as that context relates to Newton, based on his historical comps, he has a legitimate shot to finish as the number one fantasy quarterback this year.

Maybe I’m wrong and the Panthers limit Newton’s designed runs. Even then, he probably finishes as a top 6 QB. But if I’m right, Mr. Cam Superman Newton could win you your league in a similar fashion to what RGIII did last season. And you can get him at a huge discount right now because of something his coach said to a reporter in June.

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