Breaking Down Andy Dalton’s Pass Targets, Subtitle: I May Have Ginger Fever
The title of this article is maybe a little misleading. I don’t actually have Ginger Fever. Or at least not for Andy Dalton. Now Christina Hendricks on the other hand… moving on.
The table below is from the app that I posted yesterday and breaks up Andy Dalton’s targets as a pro, based on who he was throwing to.
|Andy Dalton||A.J. Green||WR||272||158||2279||16||9||8.07|
|Andy Dalton||Jermaine Gresham||TE||184||119||1311||11||1||8.08|
|Andy Dalton||Andrew Hawkins||WR||113||73||790||4||4||6.11|
|Andy Dalton||Jerome Simpson||WR||101||49||720||4||1||7.48|
|Andy Dalton||Andre Caldwell||WR||67||37||317||3||7||0.93|
|Andy Dalton||Brian Leonard||RB||44||31||252||0||0||5.73|
|Andy Dalton||BenJarvus Green-Ellis||RB||30||22||104||0||1||1.97|
|Andy Dalton||Marvin Jones||WR||30||17||195||1||1||5.67|
|Andy Dalton||Armon Binns||WR||29||18||210||1||0||7.93|
|Andy Dalton||Mohamed Sanu||WR||25||16||154||4||0||9.36|
AYA = (Yards + TD*20 – INT*45)/ATTS
You can see that there are reasons to be excited for Dalton’s prospects. He’s been good throwing to all of the following receivers: AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Mohamed Sanu (on a small sample). These numbers go back to Dalton’s rookie year. You can also see from the table that there have been some problem areas too. Passes to running backs tend to produce lower AYA, but that’s especially been the case with Dalton. Throwing the ball into the turf wouldn’t have had a much different impact than throwing it to the Law Firm, whose targets produced 1.97 AYA.
The room for optimism as it relates to Dalton comes from the following things:
- The addition of Tyler Eifert can’t hurt. In general tight ends tend to make scoring touchdowns in the red zone a little easier. Eifert is probably also a similar quality prospect to Gresham when he came out.
- The addition of Gio Bernard (while potentially overrated and similar to the much later pick Kerwynn Williams) could be really good for a passing game that was getting little from its RBs on a per attempt basis.
- The continued development of either Marvin Jones or Mohamed Sanu could also put wind in the sails of that passing offense. Dalton averaged 7.34 AYA on his attempts to the two young receivers (combined 55 attempts). They’ll be a year older in 2013 and so will Dalton.
I’m not an unbiased party in this article. I own Dalton in a couple of leagues, but I own Dalton because I like his chances… rather than the other way around.