ADP Arbitrage: MJD vs. Ahmad Bradshaw
If I said I could get you a running back with a bum foot, who had spend a good amount of the past few seasons on the injury report, and all you had to pay was RB14… is that something you’d be interested in? Well apparently enough of you are interested in that proposition because Maurice Jones-Drew is currently being drafted as RB14. That’s despite the fact that he’s coming off of a season in which he only appeared in six games. Also, he had a procedure at some point to repair the foot that gave him problems last year. Oh right, and MJD is going to be 28 during the upcoming season.
But if bum-foot-running-backs is what you like, why wouldn’t you wait for Ahmad Bradshaw at RB26? His 2012 season was pretty much the same as MJD’s and Bradshaw will likely be in the better offense in ‘13 (Blaine Gabbert is sending me a strongly worded letter over that baseless speculation).
Jones-Drew has appeared on the injury report in about 40% of the last 64 games. His claim prior to last year was that he always managed to play through pain. Except now that’s not true anymore either is it? But that actually is true of Bradshaw (at least up to now). Bradshaw has appeared on the injury report about 60% of the time going back to 2009, and yet he has fewer DNPs than MJD does over that period.
I don’t necessarily think that Bradshaw is a great risk to assume for the 2013 season, but that just means that at this point MJD looks like an awful risk to assume for your team. I’m “injury prone agnostic” for the most part except that’s because injury proneness usually comes with a discount. But what’s your discount in MJD’s case? And unless you can assume he’ll be more healthy than Ahmad Bradshaw, why not take the discount available with Bradshaw?