ADP Arbitrage: DeMarco Murray vs. LeSean McCoy


LeSean McCoy’s career to date has been a lot more impressive than DeMarco Murray’s, although the reality is that the two running backs are coming off of 2012 seasons that were pretty similar. They both missed time due to injury, with Murray appearing in 10 games and McCoy appearing in 12. They’re both going to be 25 years old during the 2013 season. They also both shit the bed in the statistical department if you know what I mean. Neither was very good in 2012. Here’s a table comparing the two running backs in 2012.

LeSean McCoy 2012 198 24 12       16.67      69.83      4.19       0.17      4.50      31.08 7
DeMarco Murray 2012 215 24 10       16.20      65.70      4.06       0.40      3.50      25.10 18

McCoy probably deserves something of a pass for 2012 because the Eagles were so horrendous, except that most of the personnel in 2013 is going to be the same. Drafting McCoy at RB8 probably means that you believe that Chip Kelly can waive a magic wand and cure the Eagles problems, even though he has no NFL experience and the guys he’s replacing had a ton of experience (and had been pretty successful except for a few blips on the radar). Maybe Kelly can waive that magic wand, and maybe the Eagles will put up a ton of rushing attempts. I really don’t know what to expect. I know that if the Eagles are losing football games they’ll have to pass, and that could get in the way of a run heavy offense. But I’m not here to really raise doubts about Chip Kelly. I’m sure he’s as good as advertised.

But I am a sucker for a discount and when I saw how close Murray’s 2012 was to McCoy’s, I couldn’t help but take note. McCoy is going in the first round, while you can get Murray in the 3rd. Maybe Murray will get hurt or stink again this year, or maybe Bill Callahan will be a terrible playcaller (I don’t know). But the thing that intrigues me about Murray is that he is still pretty young, he’s big, and if the Cowboys would pull their heads out of their asses as it relates to their offense, I could see Murray running up a bunch of easy touchdowns. Remember that when the Cowboys had T.O., Marion Barber was scoring double digit touchdowns on pretty low yardage totals. It would be nice if the Cowboys could figure out how the hell to use their weapons so that Murray could see the endzone every once in a while.

In the way of full disclosure, I own Murray in a dynasty league but I haven’t drafted him in a mock draft this season. So I think the potential is there, I just haven’t ended up pulling the trigger while practicing in re-draft format mocks.

I’ll now wait for someone that drafted him early last year to say that they’re never touching him again. Because that is the pinnacle of fantasy football thought and is always helpful.

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By RotoViz Staff | @rotoviz | Archive


  1. FFAvenger
    June 30, 2013 at 1:00 am —

    No way in hell am I touching Murray.  His offense throws almost too much in the RZ

  2. FFAvenger
    June 30, 2013 at 1:03 am —

    Not to mention his significant injury history and McCoy’s relatively safe comparison.  AND, despite the Eagles having a crap year, McCoy STILL did better than Murray last year. 
    I get the point of using arbitrage here, but not when there’s so much risk baked into a player’s value.  I mean, it would be like comparing McFadden’s comparable stats (when healthy and in a power-blocking scheme) to Adrian Peterson’s.
    “Well, look at how McFadden compares to AP – they’re almost identical – but McFadden is going in ROUND 3!!!”
    It only works up to a certain point

    • Shawn Siegele
      June 30, 2013 at 6:39 am —

      FFAvenger  A lot of these points are examined in the DeMarco Murray – Stealth Star article that can be accessed in the link directly above the comments. Despite some of the struggles mentioned in this article and the legitimate points you bring up in your comment, Murray’s projection is still tremendous. He’s got gigantic upside and the only way he dramatically underperforms his ADP is by getting injured again, which is a pretty big concern for all of the RB1 candidates. So I’m not sure there’s much risk at all baked into his draft slot.

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