Multi-Year Dynasty Projections – Running Back Edition
“On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.” – Fight ClubThe Similarity Score apps will let you project 2013 stats for fantasy players by looking at the performance of similar historical players. The apps are great tools to use as you prepare for re-draft leagues and in fact I used the apps while I was drafting a recent dynasty team as well. But one of the considerations in dynasty formats is how much value the player you’re drafting has not just in this season, but also following seasons. Because of the short nature of a lot of football careers, I would argue that near term results should probably carry with them a premium, but in any event it’s possible to create rough approximations of near term and long term value.
For the exercise below I used the same methods used in the Similarity Score apps to create estimates. Except that instead of stopping at estimating Y1 fantasy points, I also looked at Y2, Y3 and so on. Let me use an example to show how this works.
Adrian Peterson just had a season that was remarkable, but was also similar to some past seasons by other running backs that might be rough approximations for AP. His 2012 was similar to the following seasons:
I listed the average of the ages of the backs because in 2012, AP was 27 years old. So even though these backs range from 24 to 31 years old, on average they were really close to AP’s age.