Football

A Simple Value Screen to Give Us Some WRs to Watch

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I was messing around with my database earlier today when I realized that without much additional work I could spit out a group of WRs to watch for. To be clear, some of these guys are already on your radar as guys that you liked coming out of college, but like I said, this took minimal effort so I wanted to post it. The list below goes back to the 2000 season and filters out guys that don’t meet the following criteria:

  • Over 30% of college team yards in final college season (msYDS)
  • Over 30% of college team touchdowns in final season
  • Under 4.5 40 yard dash
  • Over 200 pounds

For the record, I think the world is more linear than would be implied by this list which is very threshold driven, but that doesn’t mean that the list can’t be valuable.

I’ve marked with Xs the guys that have already broken out (read: aren’t undervalued to their potential any more). Of the guys that haven’t broken out, if they’ve been in the league for fewer than 3 years, there’s probably still some potential there (i.e. I’m not still waiting for Devin Thomas to break out).  I would even include Jon Baldwin in that statement. Compared to his draft value, his ceiling is pretty high. It’s also interesting to see that Corey Fuller is the only guy from the 2013 rookie class on the list. Perhaps more support for the case that Shawn Siegele made here.

This is also probably a case of trying to overfit the data, but if you removed guys that averaged fewer than 13 yards/reception that would also make the hit rate higher for the guys that have been in the league for some time (this would remove Michael Floyd and Justin Blackmon from the watch list).

As a general rule, the more reasons that you have to suspect that a player won’t break out, the cheaper that you should have to get them to justify taking a flier on them.

Season Name/School Value Realized? WT 40 Time msYDS msTD YPG TDPG YPR
2012 Corey Fuller-Virginia Tech 204.00 4.43 0.31 0.46 67.92 0.50 18.95
2011 Justin Blackmon-Oklahoma State 207.00 4.46 0.31 0.45 117.08 1.38 12.58
2011 Michael Floyd-Notre Dame 220.00 4.47 0.35 0.43 88.23 0.69 11.47
2011 Alshon Jeffery-South Carolina 216.00 4.48 0.34 0.42 58.62 0.62 15.55
2011 Stephen Hill-Georgia Tech 215.00 4.34 0.48 0.56 68.00 0.42 30.22
2010 A.J. Green-Georgia x 211.00 4.48 0.39 0.56 94.22 1.00 14.88
2010 Leonard Hankerson-Miami (FL) 209.00 4.40 0.38 0.62 88.92 1.00 16.06
2010 Julio Jones-Alabama x 220.00 4.34 0.36 0.33 93.75 0.58 14.61
2010 Jonathan Baldwin-Pittsburgh 228.00 4.49 0.32 0.33 63.23 0.38 15.51
2010 Torrey Smith-Maryland x 204.00 4.41 0.39 0.46 81.15 0.92 15.75
2009 Marcus Easley-Connecticut 210.00 4.39 0.38 0.62 89.30 0.80 18.60
2009 Blair White-Michigan State 209.00 4.49 0.32 0.39 81.83 0.75 14.23
2009 Demaryius Thomas-Georgia Tech x 224.00 4.38 0.66 0.73 88.77 0.62 25.09
2008 Marko Mitchell-Nevada 218.00 4.43 0.41 0.50 94.67 0.83 18.93
2008 Kenny Britt-Rutgers x 218.00 4.49 0.42 0.30 114.25 0.58 15.76
2007 James Hardy-Indiana 217.00 4.45 0.37 0.59 86.54 1.23 14.24
2007 Devin Thomas-Michigan State 215.00 4.40 0.45 0.42 96.92 0.62 15.95
2007 Darius Reynaud-West Virginia 201.00 4.48 0.36 0.75 56.38 0.92 11.45
2006 Calvin Johnson-Georgia Tech x 239.00 4.35 0.54 0.63 92.46 1.15 15.82
2006 Robert Meachem-Tennessee x 214.00 4.39 0.38 0.46 99.85 0.85 18.28
2006 Mike Walker-Central Florida 209.00 4.35 0.42 0.50 98.17 0.58 13.09
2005 Chad Jackson-Florida 213.00 4.32 0.33 0.45 75.00 0.75 10.23
2005 Travis Wilson-Oklahoma 214.00 4.47 0.31 0.50 50.33 0.17 12.58
2004 Braylon Edwards-Michigan x 210.00 4.45 0.48 0.63 110.83 1.25 13.71
2004 Troy Williamson-South Carolina 203.00 4.32 0.40 0.64 83.50 0.70 19.42
2003 Rashaun Woods-Oklahoma State 202.00 4.47 0.55 0.75 105.15 1.15 17.75
2003 Larry Fitzgerald-Pittsburgh x 225.00 4.48 0.45 0.58 128.62 1.69 18.17
2002 Tyrone Calico-Middle Tennessee State 223.00 4.34 0.35 0.67 54.73 0.36 13.68
2001 Javon Walker-Florida State x 210.00 4.38 0.33 0.30 85.82 0.64 20.98
2000 David Terrell-Michigan 213.00 4.43 0.41 0.57 90.36 1.18 15.78
2000 Quincy Morgan-Kansas State 211.00 4.48 0.43 0.74 89.69 1.08 18.22
2000 Rod Gardner-Clemson 219.00 4.48 0.42 0.35 86.91 0.55 18.75
2000 Robert Ferguson-Texas A&M 205.00 4.48 0.42 0.63 97.67 0.56 15.42
2000 Emmett Johnson-Virginia Tech 205.00 4.45 0.34 0.33 52.18 0.27 16.88
2000 Chris Chambers-Wisconsin x 210.00 4.33 0.51 0.36 96.75 0.50 16.47

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