DynastyFootball

The 2013 RotoViz Composite Rookie QB Rankings!

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These are the composite dynasty rankings for the 2013 QB Draft Class as voted by the RotoViz writing community. I’m sure after the excellent job done by Matthew Freedman on RBs, Jon Moore on WRs, and Davis Mattek on TEs, you’re on the edge of your seat to discover where the staff fell on a much-maligned and hotly-contested QB group. (In addition to the Fantasy Douche, the final member of our group, Ryan Rouillard, is off to a very fast start.)

As you know by now, the composite rankings reflect our combined effort. The reality rankings, projected selections, and dynasty value beneath the blurbs are my own and shouldn’t be used to cast aspersions on the rest of the group. (To see my contrarian reality rankings for RB and WR, feel free to visit the Banana Stand.)

Each player description also acts as an index to the work we’ve done on these prospects over the last several months (which means some of the links are repeated so you don’t have to scroll back up when you realize you really do want to read about how the class performed in high leverage situations). If you end up deciding to subscribe in order to peruse them fully, keep one thing in mind: This is only the beginning. RotoViz will be providing broad and deep content all season to help you dominate your fantasy league, and the information provided in the Apps will be unparalleled on the interwebs.

1. Geno Smith

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Geno Smith 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

 

Smith was the unanimous No. 1 choice of RotoViz rankers. Despite what the draftnik community says, Geno is an elite prospect whose flaws are ridiculously overhyped. He sports impressive comps, fits the profile of current NFL starters, and is the most NFL ready. Smith averaged 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt his senior year, which puts him in the same range as Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford. Moreover, using the RotoViz CFB QB Stat Filter, you can see that he also averages 9.2 aya in higher leverage circumstances (for example, 2-4th down, 5-plus yards to go, 70-plus level defenses). Smith is also a tremendous athlete who may be undervalued as a runner. If you like the LCF, Smith projects as an unmitigated star.

Reality Value: No. 1 Overall        Expected Selection: Top 5        Dynasty Value: 5-12

2. E.J. Manuel

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
EJ Manuel 2 3 3 2 2 2 2

 

Manuel finished as the clear cut No. 2 in our combined rankings. The 6’5” prospect sports plus athleticism and is the best all-around physical specimen at the position. His 8.8 aya is very projectable as a starting level QB, even before you add in the potential rushing value. Jon has concerns about Manuel’s low touchdown rate in big games, but suggests if allowed to sit and develop “he could become a star with the highest ceiling in this class.” The comps are encouraging if you believe in his work ethic. Earlier this offseason, I projected him as early as No. 8 to Buffalo. Finally generating some buzz with the draft hours away, I still like him as a stealth pick for the Jets.

Reality Value: 15-30        Expected Selection: 8-40       Dynasty Value: Early second round

3. Matt Barkley

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Matt Barkley 6 2 2 3 9 5 3

 

RotoViz contributors were all over the map on Barkley. Jon and Matthew liked him No. 2 based on excellent statistical vetting. His LCF shines, and Barkley’s performance in high leverage situations has been outstanding. Davis gives him the “career backup” label and has him down at No. 9, agreeing with those who see a paucity of physical tools. The past two days I published a study using the CFB QB Stat Filter to look at the contrast between the way draftable QBs performed in difficult environments versus easy environments. It does appear that QBs who can raise their game in key moments make better prospects, and Barkley performs well on this measure. Unfortunately, on 748 attempts against easy competition over the past three years, the USC alum only managed 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt. That’s almost a full yard per attempt below what current NFL starters averaged on all attempts.

Reality Value: Third Round                             Expected Selection: 8-40                 Dynasty Value: Late second

 4. Landry Jones

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Landry Jones 5 4 5 5 10 6 4

 

Nassib, Wilson, Landry, and Bray finish in almost a dead heat. While the former two are likely to be drafted earlier and have clearer paths to starting snaps, Landry is much preferred by the advanced metrics. Jon has him second to Geno in terms of readiness. Matthew points out that his Lewin Forecast puts him in the range as Manning, Luck, and Palmer. Davis, the lone dissenter, suggests his rank will “look foolish if he ever learns to deal with pressure.” I have to admit, my enduring image of Jones features him crumpling in the face an onslaught of Oklahoma State rushers in 2011. But is this meme even accurate? Let’s go back to the high leverage scenario I mentioned earlier. If you start in 2010, the two highest ranked quarterbacks are Robert Griffin III (11.9 aya) and Cam Newton (11.3). That’s no surprise. The third highest-ranked quarterback is Landry Jones as a sophomore (9.9). Of course, the 2012 version wasn’t that far behind, recording a 9.0. In those situations Jones threw 12 touchdowns and only 3 picks. He barely trailed Geno and outclassed the uber-prospect Teddy Bridgewater (8.7). In the QB Study I cited above, Jones averaged a Griffinian 10.5 aya in difficult situations. But these accolades bog down for the same reason that Barkley is a schizophrenic prospect. His performance in easy situations was abysmal. In the end, Landry Jones suffers from the fact that he captained overrated Sooners squads and exudes a mild Jay Cutlerish vibe. I don’t think anyone has much clarity on his pro future.

Reality Value: Third Round             Expected Selection: Fourth             Dynasty Value: Fourth

5. Tyler Bray

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Tyler Bray 9 8 8 4 4 4 5

 

While Barkley, Nassib, Landry, and Wilson are very similar prospects, Tyler Bray is a horse of a different color. Davis ranks Bray fourth despite “not being a fan” and reiterates concerns about the overall weakness of the class. Matthew likes him in spite of his metrics “if he lands . . . in a strong clubhouse,” pointing out the former Volunteer is young (21) and has a big arm (59 mph). Unfortunately, he struggled badly in big situations, and received a minus-3 in readiness in large part because he averaged two picks for every touchdown in high leverage situations. Then again, that may be nothing more than heat shimmer on the highway. Bray averaged 8.3 aya on the season – better than Wilson and Nassib – and strafed SEC foes South Carolina and Missouri for nearly 800 total yards. If I’m an NFL team satisfied with his character and work ethic, I’d take Bray before backup caliber passers like Nassib and Wilson.

Reality Value: Third Round             Expected Selection: Fourth Round                Dynasty Value: Late Fourth

6. Tyler Wilson

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Tyler Wilson 7 5 10 10 3 3 6

 

Wilson is the oldest of the high profile QB prospects, an issue that Jon rightly notes as a red flag and the enigmatic RotoViz Staff confirms. He also generates poor numbers in quarterback readiness. Scouts like his toughness, but Wilson probably projects as an NFL backup. Matthew sums up our thoughts pretty clearly, “I don’t care. I don’t think anyone after the fourth prospect has a chance.” (In his rankings, that includes Ryan Nassib.)

Reality Value: Fifth Round               Expected Selection: Third               Dynasty Value: PFA

7. Ryan Nassib

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Ryan Nassib 3 7 4 5 7 7

 

We voted on these rankings last week before it became increasingly clear Nassib was going to be the first QB taken. That may help explain the low rankings from Matthew and Ryan. However, learning Nassib was going to go this high forced me to take him off my board entirely. Nassib is the most overvalued QB in the draft. He doesn’t bring anything special to the table physically and his production was underwhelming. Six current NFL starters played a similar schedule strength their final years in college. They averaged 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt and a 4.5-1 TD/INT ratio. Nassib averaged 8.1 aya and 2.5. Somewhat bizarrely, Nassib’s aya only rises to 8.3 in easy situations. It falls to 6.9 in difficult ones. Jon, who has convincingly compared him to Christian Ponder and Jake Locker, gives “him the nod over Landry because of age and likelihood he’ll get the better opportunity.” And that’s actually why I think he may have less value. Consider the devastating effects that Ponder and Blaine Gabbert have had for their drafters. Because Nassib is overwhelmingly likely to fail – please understand, I’m not rooting against him, just trying to follow the logic of the situation – he will have significant costs to your dynasty team. He’ll cost in terms of the rookie pick, the roster spot, the time spent waiting for him to develop. He’ll potentially cost you games because a backup QB probably has to start for you once or twice a season. In the ongoing one-upmanship of draft posturing, it’s been reported that while luminaries like Gruden, Cosell, and Lande have Nassib ranked No. 1, at least one NFL team has given him an undrafted free agent grade. That’s where I am.

Reality Value: Late Round               Expected Selection: No. 8 overall            Dynasty Value: Negative

8. Matt Scott

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Matt Scott 10 10 6 6 8 8 8

 

Scott turned in a lot of multi-touchdown performances but wasn’t particularly efficient in Rich Rod’s high-powered spread. After caddying for Nick Foles, he did post the same adjusted yards per attempt in high leverage situations as Andrew Luck did his last year (7.4). Jon ranks him the highest, appreciating the dual threat ability. Scott disappointed in the forty (4.69), but those buzzing about Tavon Austin’s lateral agility should note that he has nothing on Scott. The former Wildcat recorded a 3.99 in the short shuttle, two hundredths of a second better than Tavon. (Interestingly, in the past ten seasons two quarterbacks have been even quicker, one of whom was Alex Smith.) Scott projects as a great backup in places like Seattle, San Francisco, and Philadelphia and would probably possess more fantasy flyer potential than most second-stringers.

Reality Value: Fourth Round           Expected Selection: Third Round       Dynasty Value: Fourth

9. Zac Dysert 

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Zac Dysert 4 12 9 9 11 9

 

Dysert attempted 220 or more passes all four years at Miami-Ohio and never really demonstrated the kind of improvement that suggests NFL ability. A pro prospect should dominate that competition. On the other hand, Dysert was also playing with a pretty crappy team, and that certainly didn’t help. Frank shows up big in support of his INT study, believing Dysert’s ability to avoid picks speaks very highly about his decision-making and arm strength. He also possesses a better size/weight/arm strength profile than many of the higher-rated quarterbacks in this class.

Reality Value: Fifth Round                               Expected Selection: Fifth Round                    Dynasty Value: PFA

10. Mike Glennon

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Mike Glennon 8 11 12 6 10 10

 

If there’s a lesson to be learned from the Blaine Gabbert/Jake Locker draft debacles it’s that chasing the ghost of Matt Ryan can have a crippling effect on already moribund franchises. Jon notes that “he has a historically weak arm and poor metrics too.” Over the last two years, Glennon has thrown 10 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in high leverage situations. His 6.9 aya against a weak schedule puts him in the priority free agent range, but he looked a little better if you slice the data just so. I’m still very scared the Cardinals are planning to select Glennon as their QBOTF.

Reality Value: Priority Free Agent     Expected Selection: Second Round                Dynasty Value: Negative

11. Ryan Griffin and Sean Renfree

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Sean Renfree 11 6 9 11
Ryan Griffin 12 9 7 12 12 11

 

Both of these guys are generating some buzz in league circles. Jon calls Griffin an “intriguing player with strong metrics who was lost on a losing team in a weak conference.” Matthew flirts with appeal to authority by ironically claiming that “if the guy who trained the Mannings says Renfree can play, I guess I’ll rank him.” The problem with our Griffin praise is similar to the problem with ESPN’s TQBR. Griffin struggles so badly in low leverage situations – 6.8 aya versus the 72nd ranked schedule – that he rarely actually played in high leverage ones (2-10 record). Renfree is a new breed of scout-generated phenom, a player whose results are bad and whose athleticism is nonexistent, but there’s just something there.

Reality Value: PFA            Expected Selection: Late     Dynasty Value: None

13. Jordan Rodgers

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Jordan Rodgers 7 11 13

 

Rodgers is Brandon Weeden-lite in that he’s not quite as good and not quite as old. (But he is good, and he is old). Rodgers ranked No. 1 in Frank’s INT Study with a zero percent interception rate in highly adverse conditions. After a tough 1-4 start, he led the Commodores to seven consecutive victories and averaged more adjusted yards per attempt than Ryan Nassib and Tyler Wilson.

14. Collin Klein 15. Colby Cameron

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Collin Klein 8 14
Colby Cameron 12 11 15

 

Perhaps the next time Tim Tebow is praying, he could ask God to intervene on behalf of Collin Klein. The Heisman finalist is white, has awful throwing mechanics, and rushed for 50 touchdowns the last two seasons. He also averaged more adjusted yards per attempt than Ryan Nassib against a much tougher schedule. Also unlike Nassib, he showed the ability to raise his game in crucial moments. He’s one of the few 2013 prospects with true NFL size. If it weren’t for Tebow’s inability to improve his release, accuracy, decision-making, defense-reading – you know, just improve at anything – then Klein would probably be considered an intriguing mid-round pick.

Colby Cameron averaged 8.7 aya on the strength of 31 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in Sonny Dykes’ version of the spread. He got his coach the head job at California and threw for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns in a 59-57 loss to Texas A&M (which might or might not have been the team that defeated the national champions). My guess is Cameron projects as just another ‘system’ QB along the lines of Kellen Moore and Graham Harrell. Of course, it makes you wonder why so many other teams don’t run a better [expletive deleted] system.

FD MF JM SS DM RR Composite Rank
Geno Smith 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
EJ Manuel 2 3 3 2 2 2 2
Matt Barkley 6 2 2 3 9 5 3
Landry Jones 5 4 5 5 10 6 4
Tyler Bray 9 8 8 4 4 4 5
Tyler Wilson 7 5 10 10 3 3 6
Ryan Nassib 3 7 4 5 7 7
Matt Scott 10 10 6 6 8 8 8
Zac Dysert 4 12 9 9 11 9
Mike Glennon 8 11 12 6 10 10
Sean Renfree 11 6 9 11
Ryan Griffin 12 9 7 12 12 11
Jordan Rodgers 7 11 13
Collin Klein 8 14
Colby Cameron 12 11 15

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

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