Running Back Arbitrage – Kerwynn Williams vs. Giovani Bernard
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The expected value from using draft picks on running backs early in the NFL draft is probably negative. I’ve argued in the past that teams should probably take a lineman every time they’re thinking about taking a running back. I’ll amend that statement now to say that when teams are using draft picks in the first three rounds they should draft a lineman every time they’re thinking about taking a running back. After the third round, draft picks become worth substantially less and it makes sense to then start looking at running backs (I really liked the Seahawks pick of Robert Turbin last year). The problem for running backs is that they are just one piece of the puzzle for the run game (there are five linemen that have to create running lanes) and the run game also isn’t as important as the pass game.