Ranking the 2013 Draft Class WRs
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I spent a good amount of time over the weekend updating my WR model in anticipation of upcoming rookie drafts, so I figured I would do a post today with some initial ranks. Just to be clear, I expect these ranks to change after the NFL draft, but through the magic of the internet I can actually update them at that time. My model, like a lot of algo projection systems for WRs is primarily focused on college production measures including some way of normalizing production for scheme, era, etc. and I call that normalized measure Market Share. But this year I wanted to add in a variable for player age as I noticed that it’s probably not fair to compare 23 year old WRs to 20 year old WRs. The former should be more experienced and also physically developed after having spent most of a college career in a college weight room. But in addition to adding age in as a variable, I was also able to add in a variable for the player’s physical measurables, which I hadn’t included before except in a weight adjusted 40 time that was barely significant. In this iteration I’ve actually included a Physical Score which is simple in that it just scales Weight, 40 Time and Vertical Leap and adds those scaled values together (with a favoring of Weight, 40 Time, and Vertical Leap in that order based on finding the best fit). I actually experimented with adding Broad Jump and Height to Physical Score, but dropped them when they didn’t reduce the model’s errors.