DynastyFootball

Mike Gillislee, Mark Ingram, and Scouting Error

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Photo Courtesy of Mark Runyan at Football Schedule

Mike Gillislee is operating under the radar to a certain degree, but scouts are endeavoring to raise the Florida back’s profile in the lead up to the draft. NFLDraftScout.com has him ahead of RotoViz favorites like Zac Stacy, Latavius Murray, and Knile Davis. Many scouts have him ahead of Le’Veon Bell, the poster child for my Agility Score concept.

Gillislee is a tough runner and willing blocker who appeals as a throwback option. Unfortunately, there are plenty of hard-nosed college players who don’t project athletically to the next level. Basically, if you want to have success in the NFL, you need to fit one of the three draftable profiles.

Following the pattern I’ve established for players like Christine Michael, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard, and Kenjon Barner, I’m going to project Gillislee based on his size, speed, and quickness profile.

Agility Score above 11.4, Yards per carry between 4.5 and 6.1, Speed Score between 87 and 107 (10 points on either side)

Name College College Yards College YPC College TD College Rec Weight (lbs) 40 Yard Speed Score Agility Score
Mike Gillislee Florida 2072 5.3 20 23 208 4.55 97.1 11.52
Name College College Yards College YPC College TD College Rec Weight (lbs) 40 Yard Speed Score Agility Score
Leonard Henry East Carolina 3089 6 29 54 206 4.57 94.5 11.4
Stefphon Jefferson Nevada 2342 5.2 30 29 213 4.68 88.8 11.41
D.J. Harper Boise State 2779 5.1 39 54 211 4.52 101.1 11.42
Fred Russell Iowa 2760 5.3 17 8 195 4.5 95.1 11.43
Taurean Henderson Texas Tech 3241 5.5 50 303 204 4.62 89.6 11.45
Davin Meggett Maryland 2411 5 18 46 211 4.53 100.2 11.46
DonTrell Moore New Mexico 4973 4.8 51 92 210 4.64 90.6 11.46
P.J. Daniels Georgia Tech 3346 4.7 23 56 214 4.64 92.3 11.53
Derek Watson South Carolina 2051 4.8 16 54 212 4.63 92.3 11.55
Tauren Poole Tennessee 1898 4.5 16 45 205 4.54 96.5 11.55
Darius Walker Notre Dame 3249 4.7 23 109 206 4.55 96.1 11.57
Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State 3877 4.9 46 151 196 4.59 88.3 11.57
Edwin Baker Michigan State 2293 5 19 15 204 4.53 96.9 11.58
Walter Reyes Syracuse 3424 5.5 45 59 209 4.52 100.1 11.63
Dicenzo Miller Mississippi State 2209 5.5 17 49 215 4.93 72.8 11.64
Lennon Creer Louisiana Tech 2621 5.1 24 48 219 4.71 89.0 11.66
Mark Ingram Alabama 3261 5.7 42 60 215 4.62 94.4 11.75

 

As you get into the 11.5 range of Agility Scores, you’re starting to deal mostly with non-prospects. Certainly the number of players who are both slow and sluggish yet succeed in the NFL is minimal.

More players are theoretically a match for Gillislee than for our previous players. Unfortunately, the only notable players are Jacquizz Rodgers and Mark Ingram. Ingram, who has thus far been a massive bust, is actually a stretch because he’s a significantly worse athlete than Gillislee. I’ve included him mostly to point out that when scouts go out on a limb and regale non-athletes based on the tape, it can really come back to haunt them. (This should be a massive red flag for Eddie Lacy who turned in a dismal Pro Day.)

Jacquizz Rodgers also represents a worse size/speed/quickness profile than Gillislee. It’s worth noting that Rodgers was promoted as a potential Sproles-type back coming out of Oregon State, mostly because he weighs under 200 pounds. But he’s largely failed at that role in the NFL, and his very poor 11.57 Agility Score offers at least a partial explanation.

Mike Gillislee Dynasty Value

Yesterday, RotoViz ranked Gillislee as the No. 13 Dynasty back, despite the assumption that he will be overdrafted. NFL GMs who employ advanced analytics probably have a priority free agent grade on Gillislee. His rating in the Explosion Index further confirms his lack of NFL athleticism. Probably in for a Chris Polkian slide on draft weekend, Gillislee represents a good dynasty ‘draft-and-flip’ target if one of the many dysfunctional NFL front offices picks him in the third or fourth round.

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

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