DynastyFootball

Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and the CFB QB Filter

Geno Smith

In Part One, I looked at recently drafted quarterbacks who put up strange splits in difficult situations versus easy situations. Like most quarterback evaluations, it has sample size issues along with a host of other caveats about teammate strength, team scheme, etc. If you regularly read sites like RotoViz, you’ve got the drill down. That said, it was interesting, if for nothing else than the narrative or descriptive aspects. Today, I’m going to be looking at the 2013 Draft Class.

To do this analysis, I employed the CFB Quarterback filter and broke passing attempts into two categories. The first was 1st and 2nd down passes against defenses that register 75 or lower. Those should have been easy (relatively speaking). The second was 3rd and 4th down passes against defenses ranked 75 or better. The difficult category in terms of both attempts and adjusted yards per attempt (aya) is listed second.

This is a truly weird draft class in that a lot of players were better in what should have been much tougher passing situations.

Quarterbacks Who Were Better In Difficult Situations

TEAM SEAS ATTS ATTS_2 AYA AYA_2 AYA Diff
Collin Klein Kansas State 2011 178 29 5.70 9.48 3.78
2012 120 54 7.25 7.91 0.66
298 83 6.3 8.5 2.13
Landry Jones Oklahoma 2010 428 44 7.01 8.86 1.85
2011 341 62 8.19 6.21 -1.98
2012 262 74 6.98 10.45 3.47
1031 180 7.4 8.6 1.21
Matt Barkley USC 2010 256 26 7.73 7.04 -0.70
2011 264 40 8.41 9.03 0.62
2012 228 30 7.86 10.10 2.24
748 96 8.0 8.8 0.81
Mike Glennon North Carolina State 2011 355 34 7.01 7.44 0.43
2012 382 56 6.48 7.55 1.07
737 90 6.7 7.5 0.78

 

Player Notes:

  • Collin Klein has been dismissed as a quarterback prospect, probably due to unfortunate similarities to Tim Tebow. But unlike Tebow, the K-State Heisman finalist was better in difficult situations. I was the only RotoViz ranker to include Klein in the composite Dynasty Rankings that will come out on Thursday, and this helps explain why.
  • Landry Jones’ performance defies explanation. The scouting report suggests that he collapses in pressurized situations, but the stats don’t remotely back that up. In fact, Jones’ pedestrian numbers are almost entirely driven by what can almost be described as indifference against weaker teams. It’s also worth noting that our sample in drawing these conclusions about Jones is the largest we have for any QB. This helps explain why Jon Moore has Jones as the second most pro ready QB.
  • Barkley resisted for a while, but with his draft stock at stake, finally threw his coaches under the bus on Monday. Like Jones, his performance in more difficult situations is strikingly better, although his ratio of easy-to-hard attempts skews heavily to the easy side. These splits explain why RotoViz has posited that Barkley may be the most clutch QB in this draft. An opposite interpretation may be equally justified. If you’re Barkley and have Marqise Lee and Robert Woods at your disposal, how do you not average more than 8.0 aya in favorable situations against weak defenses? This lends a lot of credence those who believe Barkley is only a marginal athletic upgrade on Kellen Moore. (Of course, Moore’s numbers against bad defenses are far better, and he had to keep track of where Titus Young might be lining up.)
  • I’m not a Mike Glennon fan. In fact, I’m terrified the Cardinals are targeting him in the second round. But this breakdown is much more favorable for his prospects than anything else I’ve looked at. Especially when you compare it to Russell Wilson’s performance at NC State, you get the impression Glennon’s coaches may be the ones who are overmatched.

Quarterbacks Who Were Better in Easier Environments

OFF1 SEAS ATTS ATTS_2 AYA AYA_2 AYA Diff
Zac Dysert Miami-Ohio 2010 298 12 7.03 -3.42 -10.45
2012 427 18 7.52 2.44 -5.07
725 30 7.3 0.1 -7.22
Geno Smith W.Virginia 2010 273 30 8.73 3.67 -5.07
2011 383 38 9.41 6.08 -3.33
2012 279 60 10.19 7.45 -2.74
935 128 9.4 6.2 -3.29
Tyler Wilson Arkansas 2011 319 36 9.23 6.5 -2.73
2012 320 18 8.31 6.9 -1.42
639 54 8.8 6.6 -2.14
EJ Manuel Florida State 2011 175 30 9.06 8.93 -0.12
2012 136 62 10.09 6.73 -3.36
311 92 9.5 7.4 -2.06
Sean Renfree Duke 2010 228 75 6.56 4.2 -2.36
2011 279 45 6.46 6.6 0.18
2012 275 49 6.79 4.8 -1.96
782 169 6.6 5.0 -1.57
Ryan Nassib Syracuse 2010 297 17 6.80 4.76 -2.04
2011 300 41 6.08 7.80 1.72
2012 362 29 8.33 6.93 -1.39
959 87 7.2 6.9 -0.23

 

Player Notes:

How Does This Affect My Rankings?

I like the fact that Klein, Jones, Barkley, and Glennon were comparatively strong in difficult situations, but it’s mindboggling how pedestrian these guys were in favorable situations. Out of this group, it probably improves my outlook for Glennon the most, because you can make the easiest argument for him not being supported by coaches and teammates. There’s really no excuse for Jones’ and Barkley’s numbers when you consider their schemes and teammates.

The profiles for Smith and Manuel are starting to pale slightly, but when you combine their numbers with their athleticism, they’re the easy choices as the first two quarterbacks off the board. Meanwhile, Wilson and Nassib profile as NFL backups who might emerge as game managers if you look at their results through rose-colored glasses.

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

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