Numbers Breakdown: Are We Overlooking Brian Quick’s Star Potential?
Why did I ignore Brian Quick when he got drafted with the #33 pick in last year’s draft? Was it because I was too infatuated with A.J. Jenkins to notice anything else? Was it because players from non-BCS schools have a harder time sticking? Is it because nothing about the Rams has gotten me fired up in a decade?
Whatever the case, a recent article by Bryan Fontaine caused me to take a second look. Because target data isn’t readily available for FCS guys, I had to do some digging. What I found leads me to believe that Quick, a second year player from Appalachian State, could have the highest upside among class-of-2012 wide receivers.
What immediately stands out about Quick is his speed. The guy weighs 220 lbs and ran a 4.5 second forty yard dash. Unless your name is Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, or Vincent Jackson, you have almost no business being that big and running that fast. More than that, he proved to be agile for his size, posting an agility score on par with Brandon Marshall and Jordy Nelson.
|Player||Ht||Wt||40 yd dash||Vertical||Broad||Shuttle||3 cone|
More than just physical attributes, Quick has the production to hang with Marshall and Nelson.
Yards per Target: Above 10 yards is the goal.
Market Share of Yards: Above 30% is the goal.
Market Share of Touchdowns: Above 40% is the goal.
Red Zone Touchdown rate: Above 35% is the goal.
People love to throw around the term ‘upside’. Here’s the way I like to think about it: are a player’s numbers trending upward as he heads to the NFL, or did he hit a ceiling? When it comes to Brian Quick, not only does he have outstanding physical attributes, but he also displayed growth across the board in his final college season indicating that there’s room for growth in the NFL.
Put it together, folks. We’ve got premium physical attributes, upward trending numbers, promising rookie season use, and one of the best quarterback prospects of the last 15 years throwing him the ball. If Brandon Gibson leaves in free agency, Quick becomes an every down player. If you’re drafting for 2013, Brian Quick makes a perfect late-round lottery pick. If you’re in a dynasty league, NOW is the time to acquire him. He and Sam Bradford will punish defenses for years to come.