Exploiting Inefficiencies: ADP Arbitrage
One of the things I’m always looking for during a fantasy draft is the ability to pick up a player that I think is 90% of another player, but for a much reduced price. Last year I thought that it was realistic to expect that Marques Colston could put up most of Larry Fitzgerald’s production, but for a much lower price (WR16 for Colston, compared to WR3 for Fitzgerald). Fitz’s poor season made that guess seem like an even better bet by the end of the season, but that’s actually part of the attraction of looking for inefficiencies. When you look for a similar thing, but at a reduced price, you’re building in some cushion so that you don’t have to be perfect.
The tool below will let you explore opportunities to do the same thing for the 2013 fantasy season. It’s built on the same idea that powers the similarity score apps, but instead of looking for past similar seasons, we just look for current similar seasons and then look at ADP differences among the similar group. For instance, if TY Hilton is relatively similar to 3 wide receivers who are being drafted ahead of him, then you might avoid taking those wide receivers and wait instead to take Hilton much later.
The ADP numbers are from Fantasy Football Calculator and we’re so early at this point that you can expect things to change. But I find this to be an incredibly fun exercise anyway.
(It may take just a few seconds for the tool to load)